收到最新月供股票的交易記錄, 順便update一下:
最後重申, 筆者會全數供股, 手上持有的所有金融股(即永久組合)一股也不會減持, 繼續月供股票. 另外, 增加現金儲備水平的進展良好, 一旦到達心中的水平便會回復增持金融股.
台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
骷髏會只係一班：
回覆刪除1.過氣財演(blog)
2.海嘯大輸家
3.推薦完一堆蝕錢股仲死撐的人
4.熊市後就吾敢so個組合比人睇的人
5.同佢地不同意見就del你
所以佢地講野基本可以不理，自以為事
老兄, SKULL 佢地話匯控借錢比西歐銀號, 西歐銀號又會借錢比東歐銀號.....如果東歐唔掂, 西歐銀號都會變壞帳, 影響匯控......真係比佢抛窒兼瞓唔着....好似好有道理, 响熊市時講呢D 就一定冇死錯喇. D 電台搵D 二打六上去都算, 依家搵D 怪客....
回覆刪除BANK OF ALAN
如果要聽這節目，可以在這星期內安裝HONGKONG TOOLBAR重溫的
回覆刪除市場先生
回覆刪除點解冇人話你知, 骷髏會就是"明燈會", 同佢地既投資意見對著幹, 贏面已經好大
如果唔信, 不妨做下統計, 將骷髏會成員既過往意見, 同事後結果做比較, 你肯定會見到D野 KAKA
借問聲骷髏會是何許人也？是否即係問股神借左10M果位作者？
回覆刪除小弟都睇過佢本書…佢好似係…賭仔黎咋喎…(可能連TCE、ROE等都唔識計架喎)
上年中骷髏會主席就勁唱好當時每股三個半既173, 今日就唱淡$33既匯豐.....
回覆刪除原本我都對HSBC失去信心, 但經骷髏會一唱淡, 信心即刻番晒黎
市場兄,小弟近來唔知算唔算犯左一次大錯:Citigroup一蚊當日同朋友研究左好耐敢唔敢入,結果而家大算一倍半了...
回覆刪除究竟係我太膽小、定執番身彩?
火燎森的威水史小弟有詳盡記載:
回覆刪除http://putoutfire.blogspot.com/
An article about HSBC:
回覆刪除http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13240644
Is HSBC’s $17.7 billion rights issue a sign of weakness or of strength?
THERE are two radically different tales doing the rounds about HSBC, Europe’s biggest lender by market value. The first says that HSBC, deep down, is still an emerging-markets operation run by rugged types who disdain the sorcery of modern finance. Under the temporary grip of an evil spell in 2003 they bought Household, an American consumer-credit firm that then haemorrhaged losses. On March 2nd they snapped out of it. HSBC’s chairman acknowledged that it was “an acquisition we wish we had not undertaken”, wrote off its cost and promised to run down its book of dodgy loans. Having opened its heart, HSBC felt able to lower its dividend and raise its core tier-one capital ratio to 8.5%, above those of JPMorgan Chase (6.4%) and Santander (7.2%), two more of the Western world’s biggest banks also vying for the title of the safest one.
Against this there is a horror story. It says that HSBC’s definition of capital excludes mark-to-market losses on asset-backed securities (ABS). Furthermore, particularly demanding critics say that it also excludes mark-to-market losses on its loan book. Like almost all banks, HSBC carries these at book value and impairs as customers default. However, include both these items and the core tier-one ratio would drop to just 2%. Treating loan books on the same basis, JPMorgan would be at 5% and many other banks would be insolvent.
This would suggest that HSBC is in fact poorly capitalised, and needs to raise even more equity. The alternative, advocated by, among others, Knight Vinke, an activist investor, would be to cut loose Household, which HSBC does not legally guarantee and which accounts for just over half of the additional mark-to-market losses. Household’s credit spreads are much higher than HSBC’s, suggesting that investors think this is possible, despite HSBC’s verbal assurances to the contrary.
Which story is right? Given the risk of litigation, the reputational hit and the fact that HSBC has itself loaned Household some $13.5 billion, its mark-to-market loss would have to get a lot worse before HSBC was prepared to let it default. And like many banks, HSBC argues that there is at least some chance mark-to-market losses overstate the ultimate impairments it will face. The ABS loss has been very volatile, doubling in six months and stands at ten times HSBC’s “stress test” estimate of the probable hit. The mark-to-market loss on Household’s loan book is double what optimistic analysts think the likely ultimate impairment will be.
Pleading that fair-value accounting is cruel is hardly unique, but what makes HSBC’s position more credible than most is that it has the capacity to wait and see. Its funding position is excellent with deposits exceeding loans, reducing its dependence on wholesale markets. And the core business continues to generate lots of pre-provision earnings. If spread out over several years, the bank could absorb the hit from Household implied by the mark to-market valuation without damaging its capital.
Indeed the real moral of the tale is different. Compared with other banks HSBC is protected by its big deposit base and its profitability. It looks therefore as if investors will back the rights issue. Others do not have even that comfort.
交行出成績了,市場兄有何高見?
回覆刪除回應若缺齋老人 : Citi質素真係麻麻, 不過目前每股TCD超過3美元, 前一排股價跌穿1美元的確離譜, 股價上番3美元會比率合理. 交行業績未詳細睇, 單從表面去看, 算唔錯.
回覆刪除回應Albert: 多謝貼文, 我會仔細研究.
單係隻#173就贏到開巷, 拍得住同期表現最差既兩隻藍籌(#267,#2038)...真係功力非凡,大家真係唔好睇小佢,要問下自己,你得唔得先...?
回覆刪除水仙子有冇做過model呢?
回覆刪除若缺兄, 你都睇中 citi, 我又係咁.....好慘....
回覆刪除