今日比較注目的財經新聞之一, 相信是受到三聚氰胺事件影響, 蒙牛復牌後股價一日下跌60.25%.
投資風險可以簡單分為系統性風險和非系統性風險. 單一行業或公司受到個別的不利事件影響而股價大跌, 呢d屬於非系統性風險, 即係壞消息只影響個別公司或行業的股價, 而對整體大市沒有大影響. 以今次蒙牛股價大跌為例, 雖然今日整體大市都下跌, 但恆指跌幅只有3.87%. 所以蒙牛股價插水事件屬於非系統性風險.
根據投資理論, 減低非系統性風險的影響可以靠分散投資, 即係一個股票組合包含不同行業和公司, 於是, 即使有個別公司或行業出事, 只會影響整個投資組合的一個部分, 甚至小部分.
不過, 今次筆者學到的教訓並非要分散投資(但筆者並不反對別人實行分散投資的做法). 相反, 今次筆者學到的教訓是, 投資要專注, 要精而非廣, 要質優而非量多(指股票數目), 要集中而非分散. 所以筆者會更加集中投資永久組合, 而永久組合仍然會集中於金融股. 因為筆者的知識圈目前只包含金融業, 筆者有認識有信心的, 仍然只是金融業. 當然, 金融業之中, 都有良莠不齊的現象, 都需要選擇. 所以筆者將投資範圍, 限制於現時的永久組合, 包括5匯豐, 945宏利, 2888渣打, 2318平保, 2628國壽, 3328交行和3968招行.
事實上, 雖然恆生指數由一年最高位31,958點跌到今日收市18,872點, 跌幅大約41%, 但筆者的永久組合的市值同最高峰比較, 到今日為止, 跌幅少於20%, 市值仍然在4mil以上.
台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
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下一站，牛津
2 年前
As a previous employee in one of yr PRC banks portfolio,I just cant understand why ppl is bullish on it, provided that the extremely loose and fragile internal control system,which is particular important for FIs.
回覆刪除先生, 我覺得你投資蒙牛的失誤並唔係你投資左係你唔擅長的項目上, 我個人認為食品飲料的股票係長線投資組合中一個好穩健的成員
回覆刪除但係我始終認為中國內地各方面的監管有好大的改善空間,如果在食品飲料上進行投資我不會選國內的公司
同意，我都有２０００股『蒙牛』做教訓，唔溝貨啦！
回覆刪除回應無名士: 以筆者的所見所聞, 暫時未聽聞有一個從事金融業的朋友, 話自己間公司好得. 當你置身其中, 你會睇到自己間bank唔掂, 然後以為第2間bank好過自己間. 其實, 可能世界上根本無一間bank係無缺點.
回覆刪除回應無名士2, skm: 食品飲品股最大的風險之一就是食品安全. 品牌和信心需要長時間去建立, 但一夜就可以損毀.
或者可口可樂遲些又會出手收購蒙牛, 進一步增加其在中國飲料市場的影響佔有率, 同時效恢復市場對蒙牛的信心, 順手再次惠及先生的食品組合呢~ 哈哈~
回覆刪除愈想就愈覺得這方案對蒙牛/可口可樂都有一定程度的利益~ 哈~
不知先生意見如何?
i actually thought your lesson should be that 1) you are unlucky, and 2) margin of safety matters and as long as you have that, the loss should be manageable and you can still make money on the stock over time.
回覆刪除the idea of holding a core portfolio is good but i have no idea why you would have only financial institutions stocks. concentrated portfolio is good but your risks are all correlated and financial stocks are not safe. as seth klarman puts it, "There can be no margin of safety from investing in the shares of thinly capitalized financial institutions that own esoteric or risky assets." have you thought through what would happen in a credit down cycle in china?
Interesting comments, it's the first time I see someone quoting Seth Klarman on this blog. I agree with you that MoS matters and before yesterday's crash Mengniu was selling at P/E above 25. I haven't done a lot of research on this company but looking at this single number alone would discourage me from looking deeper as there are other more obvious opportunities.
回覆刪除I think the worsening housing market in China will have a significant impact on Chinese banks. I would not be surprised if default rates skyrocket to above what the US has now.
On circle of competence, I praise Mr. market's suggestion of staying within one's own CC. However, it's also beneficial to expand it if the circle is too small to start with.
記得以前睇過Graham本書"Security Analysis", 佢老人家話千萬不要買銀行及保險股,因有槓杆關係,若市場轉勢便大蝕云云,其理論是否已不適合今天?例如現時監管力度較當年嚴格?
回覆刪除To 徹之進:
回覆刪除The regulations are there. But as you can see from the US financial crisis, to maximize profit, bankers can always find holes in the regulations to capitalize on.
So for a financial institution, the most important thing is the honesty and rish management of management.
You shouldn't rely on government regulations to monitor banks.
To Mr Market:
Agree with other visitors that, margin of safety is important. Mengniu is a good stock. Good stock only turns into a good investment at the right price. The price of Mengniu is more reasonable now.
從最高峰只下降20%，己經算很了不起了，市場先生毋需太過擔心。
回覆刪除相信下降20%是Top 10%的人才可做到。
如果你的組合只有蒙牛、伊利、光明 (後兩者 有 A 股上市)的股票，你在集中風險。
回覆刪除如果你的組合有蒙牛、匯源、康師傅 (內地三類不同食品的市場領導者)，三者注碼相若，在我而言肯定已是個風險分散的組合。
問題：你是國泰空姐，認為現在油價波動雖大，金融風暴未完，但從你親身觀察和同事輾轉告知，CX 各航線的載客量並不覺有明顯倒退，但載貨量，燃料佔總成本多少，其他航空公司的營運數據就不清楚。
組合 A 只得國泰 (293) 和中國國航 (753)，每股注碼相若
組合 B 只得太古A (19) 和國泰，注碼 : 1/3 太古，2/3 國泰
組合 C 一注獨贏全買國泰
你認為 A、B、C 那個組合對這空姐較適合 ?
Graham's meaning is that the banking industry is too complicated to understand.
回覆刪除My point of view, is that we can still buy financial firms as long as we are highly confident to their running.
Nevertheless, as "investor" said, diverse portfolio and margin of safety should be truly the consideration. Only following this way is truly a "value investor".
認同今次蒙牛出事，事前冇人會預計得到。投資左蒙牛而損手，係非戰之罪。多謝繼續分享，無聊噪音可以不理。
回覆刪除世上只有一種人能夠自誇「投資從不損手」，就係吹水王！
Mr. Market,
回覆刪除I worked for six banks, half of them are PRC banks, two of them foreign and one of them local.
I have had anticipated that you will have such response.
Anyway,glad to see u only got two by which I have worked for,but not three. :D
I dunno if u have worked in banks or not... but,u know,given the current market situation,fragile internal control is vital to the FI itself.
I am pretty confident on the fact that those PRC banks which have undergone "shares holding structure reform" have not experienced current PRC economic environment. Yes, most of them have decades of experience. But the truth is,they are not proved to be successful in handling economic uncertainty.
One fatal reason is that they simply unloaded their NPLs from the balance sheet to the Big Four asset mgt firms before they had been listed... what i want to say is the management is abused.
I am not intended to by bearish all the time on PRC banks. But I just cant understand why u can put the two PRC banks in the "Permanent Portfolio". They are not HSBC and SCB... they are purely banks developed in an emerging market.
既然先生專心於永久組合, 為何卻不把蒙牛套現, 把資金投放於你安心的公司呢?
回覆刪除回應乘夢航: 可口可樂收購蒙牛的機會就微d, 雀巢將來收購蒙牛就有可能.
回覆刪除回應Investor : 同意margin of safety 非常重要. 我的永久組合全部是金融股, 我認為無問題. 至於國內金融企業尤其是銀行, 我預期將來一定會經歷類似現時美國次按風暴的信貸風暴. 不過, 唔會影響內銀股的投資價值. 其實每一間永久組合的企業, 我都唔會預期佢永遠唔會發生災難, 不過, 我相信, 即使有災難, 呢d企業都能夠渡過和重新發展以及繼續增長. 以匯豐為例, 佢都受到次按金融風暴的影響, 但我相信匯豐最終能夠安然渡過.
回應another value investor : 我絕對相信並且預期未來國內銀行將會經歷信貸風暴, 相信無一個國家或地區的銀行可以避免credit default 的發生. 另外, circle of competence, 並非我唔想擴闊, 而且無時間和精力.
回應徹之進 : 我認為優秀的金融企業係好的投資對象.
回應無名士: 非常多謝和同意你的意見.
回應X力臣 : 我對永久組合好有信心, 但另一方面, 我對財富的得失睇得好開.
回應港燦: 國泰 (293) ,中國國航 (753)，太古A (19) 我全部都唔喜歡, 我俾這空姐的意見係全部都唔買.
回應KY: 我同意投資要選擇自己了解的行業和公司. 我也同意margin of safety 非常重要. 不過, 如果你只有能力了解一個行業, 那麼, 你只買一個行業的股票, 都好過純粹為了分散投資而買入其他9個你唔了解的行業.
回應bob: 多謝鼓勵.
回應無名士: 我只可以答你, 我未做過PRC bank 和local bank. 如果唔介意, 可否分享多些PRC bank , local bank 和foreign bank的差異?
回應Never : 呢d係自尊心的代價.
回覆刪除I understand and support Mr. Market's choice of selected PRC banks. T
回覆刪除When a country is on its way up, i.e. from emerging market on its way to a developed country (gradually), its banks/financial companies will be the outperformer. It's impossible that a country becomes rich and the major /key financial companies going under. This can be verified by looking at all the countries (US, UK, Cananada, or HK as a city). Ofcourse there are always some financial companies will bust in the process. but there are winners.
After the country has become a developed country like US today, .....
Thus, if we do believe China will continue to grow toward ... banks / insurances are good choice (in general).
My 2 cents.
With all respect, I think it is not very valid to state that your portfolio down < 20%. This "apparent" finding is part and partially due to continuous pumping of money into the portfolio. The same portfolio worth 6.26 Million on 29/10/2007. This calculation is not fare to you also due to variable reasons (e.g dividend,etc). Amazingly, you still beat the market despite this unfare treat.
回覆刪除@pisce-hk: I think you said it best when you stated "Ofcourse there are always some financial companies will bust in the process. but there are winners."
回覆刪除At this point it's hard to say which of the Chinese financial institutions will survive the next storm. None of them has a good long-term record to my knowledge. They were state enterprises until a few years ago and they attained solvency only upon cash infusions by the government. I think it remains to be seen which institutions are indeed well-managed.
I think if one buys a basket of chinese financials at this point, it will perform well over time with the high growth rate in emerging China, as you have said. However, don't expect each of them can survive in the next storm.
@wl: Nice observation. I think an apple-to-apple comparison would be to purchase the HSI at the same rate as Mr. Market makes his monthly contribution. However, since he has already accumulate a large portfolio (relative to his monthly contribution) last year, I think the difference would be quite small.
有否想過增持蒙牛？我已在開市首日以約7.5增持小量股權。
回覆刪除當然，買入此災難股存在風險，但我仍對長綫的前景樂觀，相信時間能淡忘，並且競爭優勢仍存在。
未發生事件時，估值屬偏貴，惟蒙牛所建立的卓越品牌，市場大多數願給予較高的溢價。
發生後，股價大瀉，反映事件對其的嚴重性，現時只好關注撇帳及賠償的金額，願與管理層度過危機。
value investor:
回覆刪除Thanks for your advise. "if one buys a basket of chinese financials at this point, it will perform well over time with the high growth rate in emerging China, as you have said. However, don't expect each of them can survive in the next storm."
i agree that we need to keep an eye on the chinese banks all the time. But we also need to keep in mind that china is a government dominated country. not a country like canada. a 100% private company may have more political risk (e.g. 2318, ping-an insurance) in my view. it's always good to have both private owned + state owned financial banks/insurance companies.
Thanks you all, and Thanks Mr. Market to allow us use this spot for discussion ;-)
回應wl: 我的永久組合在去年最高峰時大約值5mil. 減值幅度相對比恆指小, 原因包括組合最重份量的5和945跌幅相對較小, 至於股息當然也是一個不可忽視的因素. 另外去年第4季我減持30%股票套現, 今年在相對低位再買回, 我話係相對低位, 因為補回的價位低過去年減持的價位, 雖則,補回的價位仍然比現時的價位高, 但效果已經足以令到減值幅度縮小. 當然在套現的30%現金當中, 有一部分用左去贖回珠海的物業, 部分用左去結婚開支. 不過整體來講, 仍然可以保持住大部分的市值. 另外想講, 月供股票組合的市值係唔計入永久組合的市值, 因為係兩個獨立的組合.
回覆刪除回應another value investor : 我已經預左中國未來有金融風暴的發生, 但我認為永久組合中的中資金融股仍然可以生存下來. 當然, 未來的事無人可以100%肯定, 我可能會估計錯誤. 但我無意改變既定的睇法.
回應投資王: 目前我已經100%持股, 並無多餘的資金, 即使有, 我也會優先增持金融股.
Congratulation that you can sell high buy low. However, as long as there is money going in and out of your portfolio, it is hard to compare its performance with a benchmark by comparing its asset with the index. Example your did buy 3328 on 16/9 for the eternal set. I don't mean you exaggerate your performance, i mean you should find a more scientific way to verify your statement. May be your portfolio actually down only 10%. The apparent 20% drop is due to withdrawal of money for other use.
回覆刪除BTW, congratulation !
回應wl: 多謝你的意見.
回覆刪除