星期三, 2月 22, 2017

講講匯豐

 
這篇短文主要是昨晚在雪球回應有球友對匯豐的發問.
 
 
 一間銀行一年的經營成績最終會反映在普通股東每股資產淨值身上, 因此, 匯豐出業績我第一眼是看每股資產淨值. 結果是每股資產淨值從2015年的8.73美元跌到7.91美元, 不要忘記, 2014年每股資產淨值是9.28美元. 表示匯豐每股資產淨值持續下跌.
 
2016年匯豐的股東權益由2015年的1884.6億美元, 下跌至1,753.86億美元, 可能有人會說, 因為期間匯豐向股東派息高達112.79億美元, 不過, 派息的金額要來自經營利潤才有意思, 如果要從股東資金抽出來派息就沒有意義了. 何況匯豐在2016年期間有發行以股代息股份增加股東資金30.4億美元, 足以抵消因庫存形式持有回購股份25.1億美元.
 
匯豐股東資金下跌6.937%, 但發行股份卻由2015年底的195.85142578億股增加至2016年底的201.91586214億股,  因此, 造成今天每股資產淨值下跌到7.91美元的結果.
 
以今日收市價65.55元計算, 匯豐的PB已經升至1.068倍, 沒沒有折讓了. 相比之下, 渣打集團的PB 是0.683倍(註: 渣打集團每股資產淨值106.322元, 每股有形資產淨值95元), 花旗銀行每股資產淨值74.26美元, 每股有形資產淨值64.57美元, 股價60.34美元, PB 只有 0.81倍.
 
匯豐在PB已經沒有吸引的地方, 現時的優點與賣點是: (1) 股息率 6.04% (2) 10億美元的回購計劃. (3) 川普放鬆銀行業規管 (4) 美國加息有利增加淨利息收入.
 

估計股價向下空間也不會太多, 60港元到61.4元(1倍PB) 應該有支持. 但我認為可以換馬去其他潛力更高或者估值更低的股票. 

後記: 去年我在匯豐股東大會建議管理層回購股份的主要理據是當時股價相對每股資產淨值有大折讓, 當時管理層認同我所講, 回購對匯豐有利. 但現時這個理據已經不再成立了. 我始終認為目前的價位, 如果匯豐和渣打二選一, 我會選擇渣打.

18 則留言:

  1. 渣打沒有了1和2的賣點, 估計今次亦不會派息.

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    1. 要睇黎緊業績可唔可以重啟派息了

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  2. 匯豐高於 PB 1.0 回購會令資產淨值再下降, 盈利不佳難以長遠支撐高息, 股價展望跑輸大市~~~

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  3. 未來息差上調,加上經濟改善,中cheung期來說會否令大象業績有起色?

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  4. 先生,為什麼有二十五億美元回購但發行股份卻多左約六億股?是否因為包括這些回購但沒註消而是庫存的股票?但呢d股係唔會收股息的,另再加上以股代息又能增加股東資金。不明不白為什麼每股資產下跌了。

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  5. Alwin : Over the long term, who can predict any company's profits/losses ?
    If you go back to 2007, can you forcast HSBC 2016's P/E ratio is 120 ?
    My opinion is that value investment is always doing comparison between/
    among companies ...... Make your choice and do "stocks switching" if
    necessary! That's to say, if you are now holding 005.HK ,is there any
    other company better than it today ? 2888.HK or 900.HK ?
    Make your decision and action.

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    1. Alwin: P.S. I have 900.HK

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  6. how about shifting to 945?

    r

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  7. Alwin : 945.HK is an insurance company with P/E 17.88; dividend yield 2.91%
    ...... I prefer 2318.HK because its 9-months result already 17.1%
    more than 2015's same period. Whole year result will be announced on
    22Mar2017. Today market price is HK$42.55 ...... I predict its
    P/E maybe around 10; dividend yield is lower than 945.HK but the
    share price has potential going up! You may go through the last
    4 to 5 years profits of 2318.HK c.f. other china insurance cos.
    to enforce your confidence of buying it and holding it. Besides,
    2318.HK had paid 1 for 1 bonus share in 2015 ......Nice to
    shareholders record.
    P.S. I have 2318.HK

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    1. 但2318會否受人民幣匯價下跌而影響利潤?

      地產市道有的奇怪的情況,內地的地產商來香港搶地,而香港有些地產公司就北上投資,如恆隆、領匯,好似地頭蟲自己也不看好自己的地方:0

      r

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    2. Alwin : You buy a company's shares because you believe the company will making profits and paying dividends to you. It seems that 2318.HK is better than 2628.HK over past years as well as 2016's results according to latest information. Now that 2628.HK is around HK$24 while 2318.HK is around HK$42, I will choose the latter. (Value investment is always
      making choice between/among companies.)
      Don't worry about RMB currency! Believe China and Chinese! If RMB drops
      a lot, there might be third war...... Be an optimistic value investor!

      101.HK & 823.HK mainly developing/holding investment properties(shopping malls & office buildings) for rental income in the long run. I think they
      are wise guys and the investments are less risky. Do you agree ?

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  8. 有見地,我都想換馬,不過股價剛剛大跌,現在賣出有點不甘心,人性啊!

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    1. Alwin : You better read our respectful Mr. Market's latest comment on 005.HK. Be a smart value investor, you must consider all updated information and making "shares switching" if necessary. Only if you are holding "good" shares in the long run may maximise your investment portfolio. I suggest "shares switching" be done at the same time because no one can know the next moment's Hang Seng Index. Work hard & Good luck!

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  9. 謝謝市場先生兄有關股數的提醒.

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  10. 希望先生講講電視廣播,呢個個案都幾神奇,股壇閱歷淺,看不透!

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  11. 渣打PB低,怕不怕是造數? 始終唔派息,book value講乜都得啦

    GW

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  12. Mr. Market,點解你買太古B而不買太古A?有特別原因嗎?

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