星期四, 7月 15, 2010

轉貼: Manulife: At Risk if Markets Slide

http://seekingalpha.com/article/213659-manulife-at-risk-if-markets-slide?source=yahoo


Volatile interest rates and credit performance during the second quarter are once again making life difficult for analysts who cover the life insurers, and their forecasts are likely to be all over the map when the reporting period starts at the end of July. But there’s one thing they all agree on - the downward slide in stock markets doesn’t bode well for the sector, especially Manulife (MFC).

The S&P/TSX fell 6% in the three months up to the end of June, the S&P 500 Index fell 11%, and Japan’s TOPIX was down 13%.

“We expect the declines in equity markets will lead to material reserve additions for Manulife and, to a lesser extent Sun Life (SLF), while we also expect lower interest rates to lead to reserve additions at Manulife,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Andre-Philippe Hardy wrote in a second-quarter preview note.

Low interest rates have been weighing on the insurers for at least a year and a half, and the impact that stock market declines has had on Manulife is well-known. But this quarter is likely to demonstrate that the pain isn’t over yet.

“We expect Manulife will lose money (54 cents per share) while we expect Sun life’s EPS to be 21 cents, which translates into a ROE of only 3.1%,” Mr. Hardy wrote.

CIBC analyst Rob Sedran has cut his estimates, and downgraded Manulife to “sector performer.” He now expects the company to post a Q2 loss of 44 cents per share, rather than a 41 cent per share profit.

In his note, he provides an example of a scenario that shows why it’s so difficult to predict insurance earnings with any certainty these days. Manulife doesn’t carry direct exposure to Greece or troubled sovereign credits. But, the European sovereign crisis is one of the factors behind the rally in U.S. 10-year government bonds, and Mr. Sedran expects that rally will force Manulife to take a $327 million after-tax charge for the quarter.

“In other words, given the extreme sensitivity to volatile market variables, Manulife carries significant indirect exposure to many issues against which it has no direct exposure or control,” he wrote. “Frankly, we would prefer direct exposure to Greece since it would be easier to contain the issue and its impact on valuation.”



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25 則留言:

  1. 市場先生,

    小弟英文不好, 請問能否簡短解釋此篇?

    謝謝

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  2. How come so-called analysts aren't professional! Have they done homework and studied Manulife's finaical result seriously before making any statement?

    Jason

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  3. 可能佢地太自大, 以為可以質底個股價, 自己低吸!!!

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  4. Mr. Market

    quoting article but not saying anything?

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  5. 百零蚊呢個價短線黎講好合理

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  6. 今日個價114, 是否能稱得上好扺買呢?

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  7. 或許那分析員的說話是對的. 但所說的每一個因素, 都不是永久性. 巿場永遠下跌嗎? 利率永遠在低位嗎? 股巿不會永遠下跌. 雖然低利率可能會維持長時間, 但這是全行業的問題, 不止是宏利. 所以可以通過調整保證回報率, 和加保費等中和負面的效應.

    另外股價既然已反映了負面消息. 出業績時, 大跌的機會少很多. 相反, 如果分析員錯了, 則......

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  8. 市場係專業的,好少會錯價,股價一路跌反映了佢既潛在問題.自海嘯後宏利已經遠遠跑輸大市,而家恆指2萬點,同海嘯前差唔多,當時宏利大約260蚊,但而家一半都冇,揸呢隻真係喊三聲.
    唔好過分高估自己睇公司既能力,畢竟市場有好多專業既投資者.佢地明顯唔認同你地既睇法.犯錯後仍不斷用種種理由麻醉自己,說乜野好股,現價點抵點抵...唔肯認錯,與市場對著幹,損失可以好大....真係咁好,人地咁多專業投資者會睇唔出?停低咁耐畀你買餐飽?
    就算冇呢篇報導,股價已一路跌左好耐,究竟反映乜野呢?勸大家好好思考一下.

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  9. But manulife in the 1st quarter said they have sold most of stock in 1st quarter. Therefore, I dont think it is as bad as loss. But the market really said this story.

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  10. I don't think so. The market is wrong, the market is always wrong~!!

    Once the market acknowledge it's mistake, the market will change, dramatically...

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  11. 請問一下,如果宏利個 EV 值 $175,咁做估值果時,係咪要 175*0.75,調整返個稅率呢?定係只要考慮唔使交稅既 Marginal Investor?

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  12. 今日再創一年新低,到底發生什麼事呢?

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  13. 發覺恆指回升但945仍然下滑至新低,有點不明白。。。是否就像樓上所言,反彈無望,應早日割愛放為上策?

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  14. buy 945 for a year but still loss 30%...the performance are very disappointing. Regret no cut loss on it. I think even 945 can reach my purchase price later, others stocks already hv high% return when compare wif it....

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  15. 市場好少錯價,尤其係呢o的咁大型,三地上市,咁多對眼都睇到實既公司.與其質疑市場錯價,倒不如自我檢討,仔細想想係人地錯定自己錯.

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  16. 這或許是花旗,AIG等等的價值陷阱, 隻股係掂既話, D加拿大佬就一早買起o左啦, 愈跌愈買好危險也

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  17. 如果真係好把握到公司既價值,當然愈跌愈買.但觀乎往績,似乎就唔係.好似當時匯豐出事前,呢度仍然係盲目睇好.

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  18. MR. MARKET, PLEASE GIVE US SOME REPLY... WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT 945 ?

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  19. 945今晚(30-7-2010)終於在美國強力反彈了(6-7%).

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  20. 我一股不沽, 繼續全數持有手上的宏利, 已經顯示十足的信心.

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  21. 價值陷阱又一例證.

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  22. Time will tell but i have accumulated quite a lot of 945 shares at 100 and below. For me, only patience is needed for realising profits in this bet.

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