星期二, 2月 24, 2009

銀行國有化的憂慮

世事輪流轉, 以前大陸國有銀行不良貸款嚴重, 為了拯救國有銀行, 中央政府運用注入資金補充資本, 剝離不良資產(清毒), 然後公開招股上市的招數, 目的是以市場化的商業銀行制度去經營銀行, 使國有銀行納入正軌, 直到目前為止, 效果不錯, 現時全球市值最大的銀行頭3位, 分別係工行, 建行, 中行.

反觀美國的銀行, 現時的情況係公幣注資(補充資本), 意圖剝離不良資產(成立壞銀行收購有毒資產), 向國有化前進. 國有化有乜唔好? 先不要講國有銀行在經營上有什麼問題, 對現有股東絕對是災難, 國有化一間上市企業, 意味現有股東權益被大幅攤薄,甚至血本無歸, 會嚇怕投資者, 以花旗集團為例, 現時花旗集團的市值大約只有116.6億美元, 但美國政府對花旗的注資(以可累積永久優先股的形式cumulative, perpetual preferred stock)高達520.59億美元. 根據 業內人士估計, 花旗每年要支付政府的優先股股息, 超過34億美元, 的確是沉重的負擔, 難怪根據報章報導, 花旗要求政府將優先股轉為普通股, 以節省股息支出. 幸好, 換股價不是用市價的每股2.14美元, 而係超過14美元, 因此即使全部優先股轉晒普通股, 政府持股只會佔擴大股本的4成左右.

其實最大的問題並非”銀行完全國有化”是否真的會發生 (筆者相信機會不大), 而是不明朗(Uncertainty), 美國政府的立場無稜兩可, 唔得明確堅定. 不單止無幫助回復市場的信心, 更加製造不明朗的因素, 對救市措施的效益大打折扣.

另外想講, 宏利最近股價於美加大跌, 可能同市場人士投機宏利需要批股集資作收購, 於是事先沽空宏利, 到宏利真係低價批股時, 便接貨平空倉.

台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/

18 則留言:

  1. Disappointed fan of 9452/24/2009 08:51:00 下午

    Sell 945 and keep some cash for future investment. Honestly, I was a big fan of 945 who sold all my 945 (1400) at $105 (I bought them at 160 five years ago). Why so serious about 945? There are a lot of choices out there! Man, cut loss! The second tsunami is coming soon, that means no stocks in USA can survive!

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  2. Disappointed fan of 9452/24/2009 09:59:00 下午

    Don't believe in "Tony" anymore! He is questioning about himself at this moment! A lot of "Tony"'s fans suffer. Of course, it is the responsibility of the fans themselves! No one forces them to buy 945! Now, the only thing we can do is to cut loss. When HSBC has dropped nearly 70% (from 150 to 54), how can Manulife escape from this tsunami! This message is not written by "Wong Kwok Ying". I "was" a real big disappointed fan of 945. Anyway, I "am" not anymore!
    945, may you rest in peace!

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  3. 今早DJ市場快訊:"儘管該公司在香港股市開盤前否認了融資傳聞。宏利金融稱﹐在缺乏戰略性交易的情況下﹐不打算擴大普通股股本。"... 跟你所說:"宏利最近股價於美加大跌, 可能同市場人士投機宏利需要批股集資作收購, 於是事先沽空宏利, 到宏利真係低價批股時, 便接貨平空倉.", 那短線來看, 宏利應該反彈. 希望如此. - roh

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  4. 老兄E兩句係神韻:

    "其實最大的問題並非”銀行完全國有化”是否真的會發生,而是不明朗"

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  5. Ha! Ha! It is a bit late to abandon. I would prefer to keep the shares in my safe.

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  6. 先生會唔會諗下2800, rather than 945 or 5 呢?

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  7. 先生,我大陸呢邊既,睇呢篇野我有一點唔明既。
    按照先生既觀點,似乎國有化銀行系唔好既一樣野。但系內銀就系國有化銀行,點解你又睇好?同樣既野,放到外國銀行就會睇淡?
    另外,好似941,2628呢d都算系大型國企,國家控股甘大,你又唔擔心長渣既時候出現問題國家會大幅攤薄利益?中信泰富就系一個明顯例子。

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  8. CALGARY, Alberta, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Manulife Financial Corp (MFC.TO), Canada's largest insurance company, said on Tuesday it will issue as much as C$275 million ($222 million) of preferred shares to strengthen its balance sheet.

    The move comes a day after Manulife denied reports it was poised to issue common stock, saying it remained well capitalized despite the sharp drop in its share price.

    The company said it will issue eight million series 4 preferred shares at C$25 each to raise C$200 million.

    Underwriters, led by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC World Markets, have the option of buying up to an additional 3 million of the preferreds for C$75 million more in gross proceeds, the company said.

    The shares pay a noncumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 6.6 percent annually until June 19, 2014. They can be converted into floating rate class A preferred shares, series 5, on June 19 in the five years after that.

    Manulife said on Monday that it would not raise common equity capital unless it needed to for a strategic transaction. But it said any deal would have to be beneficial to its shareholders and maintain its capital position.

    Manulife common shares rose 97 Canadian cents, or nearly 8 percent, to C$13.50 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday. They are down 65 percent in the past year.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssRestaurants/idUSN2443764820090224

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  9. The major difference between PRC and US's nationalization, as mentioned by Mr. Market, is the future direction of National ownership's level.
    US and Europe is increasing and China is decreasing (or believed.
    Moreover, as China's financial is not open, the banks will be less affected by other nationlized banks.

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  10. 宏利金融發優先股集資 (08:47)
    2009年2月25日


    廣 告






    "宏利金融宣布,將發行總值最多2.22億美元的優先股,以籌集資金。

    宏利金融昨日否認發行普通股集資後,就宣布向投資者發行8百萬股價先股,每股定價為25加元。

    (路透社)"

    Mr. Market what do you think?

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  11. Disapponited Fan of 945:

    > Now, the only thing we can do is
    > to cut loss.

    Funny... asking ppl to cut loss b'coz the stock price has dropped, not b'coz of anything fundamentally wrong with the company... It'd make more sense to dump 945 b'coz the mgmt didn't (maybe also isn't) do a proper risk management on its investment portfolio

    > When HSBC has dropped nearly 70%
    > (from 150 to 54), how can
    > Manulife escape from this
    > tsunami!
    How're these related? HSBC is well managed, they made a mistake on subprime. MFC is also well managed, they made a mistake on risk mitigation. What's the relationship at all?

    > This message is not written by
    > "Wong Kwok Ying".
    Who care? And why emphasis on this? :)

    BTW, Mr Wong is good? Have a look on his track record on recommending stocks like Moulin Optical and Ocean Grand

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  12. Mr Market, how about your view of 宏利發優先股集資? Thanks.

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  13. Disappointed fan of 9452/25/2009 09:02:00 下午

    To Anonymous,

    Your message sounds very reasonable but the fact is that in this crazy bear market, there is no such thing called "reasonable price for any stocks".

    Right, 945 is a good company but many shareholders (especially those in America) need "cash" desperately right now, so the price of 945 will keep going downwards until the end of the tsunami. Don't forget that 945 is a financial stock and we are now suffering from the tsunami which is related to finance sector. Do you remember the crisis of "technology stocks" a few years ago, and what was the fate of those "technology stocks"?

    I wrote all these messages just to help those "die-hard" 945 fans. Today, the price of 945 is $90, how many people would still dare to risk their money on 945. If not, how can 945 rise back to $180, not to mention $360?

    I know the feeling of those die-hard fans because I used to be one of you! Think about it again, there are a lot of good stocks out there where I can get back my money lost on 945.

    Last piece of bad news for your guys, AIG will lose a great deal of money. If you still think this news will not affect 945, then no one including "God" can help you!

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  14. Disappointed fan of 9452/25/2009 09:17:00 下午

    This following stuff is written by Tong on 25/5/2009:

    宏利(945)雖然維持季度派息,安撫投資者其業務穩健,卻對股價無補於事。自2月9日的兩星期下來,其股價已直插30%,而且似乎仍然無助。所以,即使匯豐維持派息,甚至稍為調高股息率,人們也不能對股價放心。就算主席交出的業績較為樂觀,亦未必可安撫不悅的股東,而他真能這樣做的機會其實不大。

    I "was" a Tony's fan! Can you see how upset he is now? I am not attacking Tony. I am just trying to save those "die-hard" fans! Anyway, I have already saved myself!

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  15. Disappointed fan of 945:

    "Your message sounds very reasonable but the fact is that in this crazy bear market, there is no such thing called "reasonable price for any stocks"."

    When u own a business, do u care about daily how ppl valuate your business, or do you care how much cash will be generated each year for u? The price only matters when you buy or sell it.

    "Do you remember the crisis of "technology stocks" a few years ago, and what was the fate of those "technology stocks"?"
    Again, you're co-relating two different scenarios, what's the P/E & P/B of the TMT stocks those days and what are the P/E & P/B of the financial stocks these days. Even if you're talking about forward-looking ratios, the TMT were much far-fetched than the battered financial sectors now. Besides, those days there are idiots believing in burn-rate and the valuations were not only unreasonable but bizarre.

    "I know the feeling of those die-hard fans because I used to be one of you! Think about it again, there are a lot of good stocks out there where I can get back my money lost on 945."

    I'm not a die-hard fan. I sold a great portion of MFC in 2007 when I found out their equity position has not been sufficiently hedged.

    To be honest, I can't understand how Tony comes to the conclusion that MFC is so superb on risk management. This particular mistakes may cost the company and its shareholders dearly, if the equity market cannot turn back in time (in a few years time).

    Besides, there are always stocks being sold at better price (not necessarily better stock), will you switch your investment every time you found one? If that's the case, I can only wish u luck. :)

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  16. Disappointed fan of 9452/26/2009 10:11:00 下午

    To anonymous,

    "When u own a business, do u care about daily how ppl valuate your business, or do you care how much cash will be generated each year for u? The price only matters when you buy or sell it."

    This is a wonderful message I got from Warren Buffet several years ago. But, are you Warren Buffet? How much money do you have? How many stocks of 945 do you have? Do you have 5% of the whole 945?
    Haha, come on, if you only have several thousands of 945 like Mr. Market, don't think you own the company! You are just a dot of dust in 945, who is going to lose most of your money in the next tsunami!

    Next Monday, AIG is going to give its ugliest financial report in the American History! Can other financial stocks like 945 escape from being dragged down?

    945 shareholders, fasten your seat belt! It's going down soon!

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  17. Disappointed fan of 945:

    "This is a wonderful message I got from Warren Buffet several years ago. But, are you Warren Buffet? How much money do you have? How many stocks of 945 do you have? Do you have 5% of the whole 945?
    Haha, come on, if you only have several thousands of 945 like Mr. Market, don't think you own the company! You are just a dot of dust in 945, who is going to lose most of your money in the next tsunami!"

    Well, my dividend income alone is $1 million/year from all the stocks I've own. I can say that's more than enough for most people. And those money is what I made over the last decade with $500K initial lump sum plus $10K monthly additional from my wage until 4 years ago when I retired early. Care to tell us how much you've made from your speculation? My friends so far who are better off than the rest follow the same discipline and we are not the smartest guys among peers nor the highest-income batch.

    "Next Monday, AIG is going to give its ugliest financial report in the American History! Can other financial stocks like 945 escape from being dragged down?"
    Well, the question should be, will this impact 945's real earning. If not, who care if its price falls by half?

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  18. Disappointed fan of 9452/27/2009 02:55:00 下午

    To Anonymous,

    It seems that a little kid like me is getting on someone's nerves and someone is a retired gentleman.

    You said you have got a lot of dividend from your stocks, but can you still get the same amount of dividend this year or next year? Just assume you can get the same amount, can it cover the money you lost in the first tsunami?
    I hope your profolio does not contain 945 only; otherwise, your fate will be similar to an American old man's in a news report:

    "A 80-year-old man has worked again in a company cause he lost nearly all his money on buying AIG stock."

    I need to get back to my "work" again!

    Next Monday is a big day for AIG ...... good luck!

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