星期日, 10月 19, 2008

Buy American. I Am (By WARREN E. BUFFETT)

The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

筆者註: 全球金融已經一體化. 由美國次按演變而來的金融海嘯由北美傳導至歐洲, 以致亞洲等新興市場, 然而, 銀行業乃百業之母, 為各企業資金的主要來源, 一旦心臟衰竭, 血液供應必然大大減弱, 身體各器官的正常運作也會受到負面影響. 於是, 原本屬於金融業的系統性風險無可避免擴大至全面的經濟風險. 如果將金融業視為上遊企業(以資金供應鏈的角度), 上游有事, 下游各企業(需要銀行提供資金的企業)豈能獨善其身? 所以, 當金融公司倒閉的新聞出現一段時間後, 其他 下游企業出現倒閉的新聞也是意料中事. 在銀行收緊信貸額度(Credit Line) 之後, 下游企業無可避免要停止擴充甚至收縮業務, 減低營運成本甚至裁員. 失業率上升將影響消費市道, 繼而影響企業盈利, 企業盈利的倒退甚至虧損將影響企業的還款能力, 繼而影響銀行的資產質素. 惡性循環的效果是壞消息不斷的出現.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

筆者註: 巴菲特個人財富之中, 大部分是持有Berkshire Hathaway. 其次就是持有美國政府的債券. 可以睇到 巴菲特和費雪(Philip Fisher)一樣, 不喜歡持有現金. 而當股價吸引時, 甚至會100%持股.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

筆者註: 巴菲特的名句: "在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼" 的確是投資至勝之道. 問題是, 幾多人可以實行到? 然而, 並非所有公司都可以逆市買入. 當中, 要避開的, 包括高負債高槓桿操作的公司, 以及沒有競爭優勢的公司. 對於那些體質健壯的公司, 雖然短期盈利會受損, 但是, 5年後, 10年後, 盈利回復活力以及再創盈利新記錄是可以預期的.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

筆者註: 短期股市的走勢難以預測. 然而, 如果投資者等待經濟出現明顯復甦的跡象時, 那時股市極可能已經上升不少了, 因為股市的上升將發生在經濟復甦之前.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

筆者註: 巴菲特再次強調, 壞消息是投資者的好朋友, 因為不利消息可以為投資者提供較低的進場價格.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

筆者註: 有些倒楣的投資者發覺自己通常是高買低賣. 巴菲特提醒你, 問問自己, 是否見到好消息才有信心去高追, 而見到壞消息就不安地沽出.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

筆者註: 不要持有現金然後期望(觀望)政府推出利好政策救市, 因為政府的救市方案將導致通貨膨脹. 長遠來看, 持有現金是非常低回報的資產, 因為會被通貨膨脹侵蝕購買力. 相反, 持有股票長遠的回報將大大勝過持有現金. 巴菲特認為現時堅持持有現金的投資者是在賭緊自己能夠掌握股市的走勢, 和升跌的韻律, 是在等待令自己心安的好消息. 但是巴菲特認為現時就是買股票的時候.

台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/

16 則留言:

  1. 多謝你提供巴菲特文章!
    當中的筆者註,寫得非常好,是否市場先生之筆?
    我的組合亦在低位不斷分批購貨,無懼風浪,當然還記得股神的教誨,買入財政健全且有競爭優勢。

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  2. 請問:平保現價買得過嗎(36.5)?
    閣下覺得幾多以下才低買呢?
    thanks

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  3. 找到了一篇有關宏利的報道。主要講宏利必須為投資的股票暴跌撥備,收購aig資產的能力成疑。

    另一點是,鄧立忠向股東重申無意發行新股或減息時,表示必要時只會發優先股。是否漏了口風呢?

    宏利股價波動,後市實在難睇。請賜教。

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081020.RMANULIFE20/TPStory/Business

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  4. where can I find the source of the above message from Warren Buffett? thanks.

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  5. 回應投資王: 筆者註是我的手筆. 非常同意買入以及持有優質股, 可以無懼風浪.

    回應無名士: 36.5的平保已經幾抵買.

    回應凱迪:宏利(MLI)於08年第2季的MCCSR(Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements)有200%, 08第3季的MCCSR已經跌至183%, 在集團MCCSR目標範圍的底部. 如果股市進入下跌, MCCSR就會跌穿180%, 到時宏利就要注資入MLI, 而excess capital 就會減少. 相信宏利第一步會做的是,減少回購股份. 逼不得已才會發債或者優先股.

    回應Michael :網上search.

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  6. Mr. Market: It's very interesting that Buffett, in an Fortune article in 1999 (in the midst of .com boom), said equity return in the next decade would be mediocre at best. He was very right. Now that he reverses his opinion, we will see what happens in the next decade.

    Michael: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=buy%20american&st=cse&oref=slogin

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  7. 我對宏利這只股份很感興趣。

    其股數甚多,體積大,但交投量很少,有時一天僅幾百萬元。為什麼呢?

    另外,你提到宏利會減少回購股份,宏利一直有不斷回購股份嗎?

    萬分感謝

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  8. 另外再有一點關於宏利的問題,林森池指宏利佔有北美業務市場,人口老化,快出現保單回贖潮,令宏利過去的增長優勢不再。

    甚至有人說買宏利是走向絕路,很想知道你怎樣看?

    謝謝

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  9. 長遠來看,持有現金會跑輸大巿,我贊成;
    但過去大半年到現在持有現金,卻遠遠跑贏大巿。

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  10. 回應another value investor : 股神即是股神, 唔到你唔服.

    回應凱迪: 相信一般散戶無興趣炒宏利, 因為無乜炒作藉口. 近年宏利都利用超額資本(excess capital)進行回購, 增加股東價值. 另外, 近年宏利發展財富管理, 現時集團40%盈利來至財富管理. 唔可以話係走向絕路.

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  11. 個人意見是:投資如打仗一樣,根本沒有一套必勝的方法。所有策略都應按市況作厘訂 ...有時候應100%持股,有時候應50% ...如mechanical 地100%持股,可能只會事倍功半...除非我們處身在大牛市中.

    Ho Ho

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  12. 中信泰富與匯豐及法國巴黎銀行等多家銀行簽訂多份「累計槓桿式外匯買賣合約」,但後因澳洲元大跌而虧損預計近150億港元。

    http://news.cnyes.com/dspnewsS.asp?rno=8&fi=\NEWSBASE\20081022\WEB706&vi=31989&sdt=20081020&edt=20081022&top=50&date=20081022&time=10:26:04&cls=index15_totalnews


    再次證明匯豐銀行的賺錢能力非常傑出, 單一個DEAL就隨時可以推高今年的盈利很多!!!

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  13. 香港人真的不要自亂陣腳,不要恐慌亂沽股票,有錢的話就應在此時低買股票,我們要靠自己救市,不要像一些黑心的股評人(Mr Market除外),只懂"趁勢"踩多兩腳,唯恐天下不亂。他們只想"滿街鮮血",然後造就自己"入市時機"!香港人要團結,才能渡過難關!

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  14. 先生我攪佐個
    "最想清算財演組合?" 投票..
    希望大家過黎投票

    http://pghk.blogspot.com

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  15. 唉! 渣打跌夠未呀?!

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  16. 回應Ho Ho: 絕對認同並非所有時候都適合100%持股, 股市瘋狂的時候, 應該減持股票. 但現時, 就不是減持股票的時候.

    回應Jonathan: 銀行賣呢d結構性產品, 有時是為了對沖自己的風險, 有時是有另一些客戶需要定期沽出澳元, 銀行是是做matching.

    回應Mr. Y : 同意不要自亂陣腳, 要淡定.

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