星期二, 10月 28, 2008

財富蒸發與財富轉移

昨天恆生指數單日下跌1602點, 全球最大銀行集團匯豐可以一日下跌14.8%, 股價收市報75蚊, 比每股資產淨值80蚊仲低. 筆者入市咁多年, 記憶中未見過匯豐股價低過資產淨值, 個股市有幾癲, 可想而知. 這就是去槓桿化的後果. 對沖基金為了應付客戶贖回, 以及降低槓桿比率, 被迫賤價都要沽貨, 一大眾股民, 包括筆者, 財富被迫一同被蒸發.

作為一個被動的投資者, 即使你什麼都無做, 只是持有股票, 如果有人不計價地沽貨, 股價不合理地被沽低, 你帳面上的財富也會受影響, 因為股票是一榮俱榮, 一損俱損. 不過, 只要你保持鎮定, 不要恐慌, 耐心等待不理性的沽貨潮過去, 就會雨過天晴. 但如果你同人鬥沽貨, 把優質資產以賤價出售, 將寶當爛草賣, 將來會發覺財富就是這樣, 在金融海嘯中, 由猶疑投資者轉移到強者手中.

總而言之, 筆者認為, 財富蒸發可能是無可奈何, 但財富轉移絕對是個人可以控制的選擇. 你絕對可以向"財富轉移" say NO.

後記: 筆者想傳遞的訊息是: 不要在兵荒馬亂之際, 賤賣優質資產. 仲有資金的話, 甚至應該再買多一些.

台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/

24 則留言:

  1. Agree.

    Did you take the opportunity to collect more?

    dawn

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  2. 極力認同! 我十分欣賞你對自己理財既一份執著同堅持!

    100% support!!!!

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  3. 雖然我唔係揸5號仔, 但係策略都係長線小小為主, 基本上都係唔會沽出住. 只要抱住一個睇法(買實力股+中長線策略), 再加小小忍耐力, 應該可以安然度過股市低潮.

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  4. " 但如果你同人鬥沽貨, 把優質資產以賤價出售, 將寶當爛草賣, 將來會發覺財富就是這樣, 在金融海嘯中, 由猶疑投資者轉移到強者手中.

    總而言之, 筆者認為, 財富蒸發可能是無可奈何, 但財富轉移絕對是個人可以控制的選擇. 你絕對可以向"財富轉移" say NO."

    --------agree!

    we keep on figthing till the end. No time for looser we are the champion

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  5. 之前聽個你話有買5號仔既accumulator, 可以分享下嗎?

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  6. 市場總有失去理性o既時候, 當股價跌至不理性o既低,正是價值投資者入市之時.

    同樣地當股價跌至不理性o既高,正是價值投資者出貨之時.

    現今之中巴菲特可算是能切實執行此道之佼佼者.

    低手如小弟只能以控制注碼方式, 嚴控持股/現金比率, 與市場及恐懼對抗

    市生沽平保時, 係唔係曾打算修改 100%持股o既策略? 30-80%持股其實更具防守性, 奈何操作技巧與心理質素要求更高, 先生同意嗎?

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  7. Hello Mr. Market,

    I totally agreed your investment rationale. In fact, I will follow your temperament as well in this crash. Let's get through the crash.

    Last year, your portfolio was about 30% bigger than me and I had no stock on hand and full of cash. Now, I have bought the stock mainly in October. My portfolio is now 20% bigger than yours. I will hold the stocks (mainly china financial stocks).

    Let's hold stock for several years and see what happens.

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  8. 為咗支持自己對長線投資既緊持
    呢兩日會去hsbc提實股出黎
    仲可以慳唔少收息手續費,存倉費

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  9. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out. - Warren Buffett

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  10. 講真長線真係睇下你彩數。

    如你退休前,又遇上股災,你既投資組合冇一半,咁會唔會又幾慘呢?(冇一半要升100%,)

    如一年年回報10%,咁可能又要等7年。

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  11. D 錢唔等用就係...

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  12. 我都認同樓上2位的說法
    長線投資都要按返自己的情況去作決定
    如果你未來1,2年就退休,就要考慮唔放股票只靠股息是吾足夠生活開支
    如果仲有十幾二十年做野ge就當然唔擔心,有工作能力等待股市回升

    我都剛開始左月股股票5號,入場時係108,之前趺到75,而家趺到8十幾,但我真係一d都唔擔心,食好睡好,因為我知而家買的只係一顆種子,將來一定會長大成為一顆大樹

    多謝市場先生一直提供有關的參考資料

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  13. 回應dawn: 現時並無多餘資金, 只能靠月供股票去增持.

    回應無名士: 多謝支持.

    回應無名士2: 同意. 只要無借貸, 用長線資金買入或持有優質股, 耐心等待風暴過去.

    回應無名士3: 我從未買過accumulator.

    回應hk_tf : 雖然大部分時間我係100%持股, 但在極端瘋狂的市況之下, 我都會減持股票. 如果你睇番我07年第4季的文章, 可以睇到我當時沽30%股票的理由.

    回應無名士4: 你現時portfolio 的市值超過我, 值得高興. 我要向你學習.

    回應無名士5: 如果想長期持有做股東, 應該提貨轉名.

    回應ngkf: 巴菲特的智慧之言, 百看不厭.

    回應無名士6: 無可否認, 投資也需要一些運氣.

    回應無名士7: 同意, 每個人應該按自己的情況去處理投資.

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  14. from Anonymous5.

    Thank you. In fact, it may be purely luck. Last year, when i watch your portfolio, I think I can't match yours. I can't invest in the anticipation of calamity. Just what the Warren Buffett mentioned below. Anyway, Let's wait and Mr. Market will soon recover.


    "What the DeBeers did with diamonds, the Arabs are doing with oil; the trouble is we need oil more than diamonds." And there is the population explosion, resource scarcity, nuclear proliferation. But, he went o­n, you can't invest in the anticipation of calamity; gold coins and art collections can't protect you against Doomsday. - WEB 1974, Forbes

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  15. 先生,
    昨日幫屋企入劫左一手....但係而家諗緊之後吸貨策略 ....

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  16. Mr. Market,

    Same as you, i keep on buying unit trust every month.

    What i focus to buy is emerging market in asia and europe.

    My stock holding is just 5 and 941. Any furhter good suggestion?

    By the way, what is your current saving ratio? I think i can save 30% of my salary, do u think that it is okay for retirement?

    Calvin

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  17. 回應無名士5: 我對永久組合仍然有信心, 不過, 總結經驗, 覺得自己有改善空間.

    回應巴林 : 現時唔少優質股的確好平.

    回應Calvin: 我都有定期儲蓄的習慣, 比例高過你一些.

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  18. Mr. Market,

    But for regular monthly instalmment, you should have the mental prepaaration that you may not buy at the lowest and you have to suffer the continuous drop of stocks.

    I found that you only have the monthly instalment on stocks, did u invest in unit trust? No diverstification in other countries?

    Calvin

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  19. 回應Calvin: 我無興趣買基金, 其實買一些國際性的企業的股票已經有投資其他地區的效果, 例如5,945, 2888.

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  20. 你好, 有空請來我的blog交流一下

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  21. 點睇內銀股,,,維斯兄長遠不看好,,,,你點睇,,,會唔會俾外資擊倒?工行建行交行招行夠唔夠外資大行如HSBC/渣打砌?阿爺會點做

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  22. 回應Kelvin K : 我現時整理緊3328交銀的業績資料, 遲d會寫下內銀股.

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  23. 先生, 有時我都唔知你既係堅持定係叫執意了! 哈哈

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