現時筆者仍然持有永久組合的全部宏利持股, 而且無意減持任何一股.
98年亞洲金融風暴, 01年911, 03年沙士,08年金融海嘯, 筆者都一一經歷過了, 還有什麼風浪會擔憂和懼怕? 相信一段時間過後, 宏利仍然會發光發亮.
宏利的詳細分析報告, 會於較後時間發表.
後記: 從大家的留言已經反映不少人很關心宏利的前景. 筆者已經重申多次對宏利的信心不變, 並且配以實際行動, 一股不沽, 以及繼續月供宏利, 並且在平保停牌期間將平保的月供金額全部轉去宏利, 即是月供6000元宏利.
筆者一定會以詳盡的分析配以理據去支持對宏利的信心, 然而現時筆者每星期只夠時間寫一篇較有系統而完整的分析文章, 但卻有不少公司想寫, 包括匯豐, 渣打, 宏利, 中興通訊, 甚至即將陸續公佈業績的中資金融股等等, 希望大家耐心等待.
此外, 筆者歡迎不同的意見, 即使是睇淡宏利的意見, 甚至不認同筆者的意見, 筆者都樂於見到, 因為意見交流有助思考, 互相學習也有助提升. 但如果純粹是人身攻擊與發洩(筆者私下真係收唔少, 很無奈), 就請回去自己的網誌發表吧.
台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
為何到現在才找到原因?
回覆刪除仍然不肯認錯乎?
先生既然覺得宏利有問題，何不換馬至你其他的中資金融股?
回覆刪除為什麼她出現大額虧損也不用發盈警? 是不是管理層的問題?
RR
有趣的股票，等你的分析！
回覆刪除其實真的要小心, 如果現在美股跌(跌郅9000點), 許就要輸多好多, 所以買一D更有潛力的股份好過LA, 輸OPPORTUNITY COST
回覆刪除現在唯一許就要股市大升, 比機會許HEDGE ALL RISK. 還有, 要INTEREST RATE 跟住升, OH NO....
thanks for sharing!!
回覆刪除今年目標價會唔會下調？
回覆刪除宏利管理層當中有沒有人需要為錯誤的投資決定而辭職? 好像沒有. 今季嚴重虧蝕, 事前並無任何盈警或預警, 因何緣故? 若股市及利息維持在現水平不變, 下一季度, 宏利會否錄得與今季相若的虧蝕?
回覆刪除任何人都會犯錯,畢菲特亦唔例外.知道犯錯就應立即補救,而唔係坐定定望天打卦,幻想將來點點點.你自己都有買平保,都一定知佢既利差損保單拖累佢幾耐.與其死揸有問題公司,倒不如及早換馬,何必白白浪費機會成本.
回覆刪除blog主, 呢五年已不斷收集中資金融股, 匯豐和宏利在組合所佔的比重越來越低, 近兩年也傾向將新資金放在中資金融股上。
回覆刪除匯豐和宏利的坐折都在於早前過份看好某一類業務項目,看好的程度達到忽視風險的重要性, 當然, 這些業務當初都有帶來可觀收入, 大圍既泡沫環境也配合掩蓋營運者雙眼。 呢3年, 發生咩環境轉變, 我不用寫太多, 都係類似 幾盆冷水逐盆淋, 一個又一個醒了, 咁上來。
blog主不減持任何一股匯豐和宏利, 完全是他個人決定,
每人都可以有自己的價格目標, 價值衝量和操作方法。
有心人士想跟blog主賣買, 應該跟足才是, 其組合也有些亮麗表現, 足可等待匯豐和宏利恢復過
前景來看, 低息環境可能需持續一兩年, 投資環境取決於北美的就業, 樓市與消費是否改善/復蘇,
以宏利來講, 經營策略十分被動, 而行業競爭很大呵~ 可以怎麼調整產品抗衡呢?
想請問BLOG主意見,就算GLOBAL股市大升,若利息水平不變,會否仍出現大虧損?若查看半年業績,由於美債息前天又創新低,利息虧損撇賬下季應也需要,故很大可能今年要再供股,除非又削減派息,無論如何也對宏利不妙.想請問還有更差的情況會出現嗎?
回覆刪除如沒有,我反而會繼續持有宏利(只要它不倒閉就行),我所持的愚笨原因是它的核心業務持續增長,金融海嘯後新保單肯定以保守的回報計算以致不用出現負息差,故若能捱過這一兩年,當海嘯前過於進取而沒有對沖的保單也能出現盈利,我比較期待盈利創新高.還望指正...
市場先生,
回覆刪除我只持有300股宏利,平均買入價為$128,該筆資金也不急用,我該繼續持有嗎?
我$160買左佢真係喊三聲,無野好驚既,不過見住其他股票升幾年後佢或者先返家鄉.....個心都up啦......佢個管理層係咪要問責呢?
回覆刪除blog主未有正視宏利要面對的嚴峻問題,反而自我安慰,不斷為錯誤找借口,此點已是投資大忌.好多投資者都單憑過去判斷公司好壞,但事實是公司會變質的,外在經營環境會變,管理層會變,這些變化對盈利前景有莫大影響,直接影響公司價值,繼而影響股價.忽視這些變化,自然會做錯決定.
回覆刪除我係公佈業績前約120買了好多好多.現在要止損嗎?如想轉其他股票,有冇好建議?
回覆刪除市場先生,股神說投資致勝之道: 在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼,我現在對宏利很恐懼...教我如何貪心...
回覆刪除先生:
回覆刪除看來有很多您的追隨者跟本就不清楚自己所買的是什麼, 才回多番追問先生意見. 好求心理安定, 繼續持股... 那麼先生你就成存他們, 給他們一個了結吧~
X
回樓上:貪心要睇對象,公司變質仲盲目買入,會被市場狠狠教訓.例子多不勝數:#8,#5,#330,#2038...
回覆刪除我覺得越大的金融機構, 越難分析, 在今時今日, 我相信連內部的人, 亦不清楚其真正價值. 沒有大股東, 高層個個揾快錢, 一有逆轉. 受傷害的只有股東. 高層們已經個個穏袋花紅.
回覆刪除所以還是細公司易分析. 希望先生多些分析細公司.
宏利估值便宜
回覆刪除呢幾個字係blog主5月份分析.
買一隻股票點解好似賭大細??..完全無盈利警告.仲衰過H股.
回wailing: 雖然冇警告,但市場環境係點, 大家有眼見,專業投資者已心中有數,唔係點會出業績前就不斷跌??到底咩人沽緊貨??而家正係時候檢討,點解人地睇到有問題,自己就睇唔到.要從錯誤學習,才能避免將來再犯同樣錯誤.上次匯豐出事已是一例,明顯冇吸收教訓,所以今次又再犯同樣錯誤.
回覆刪除宏利股票一事, 為版主帶來很多正面的回應, 很多正面的睇法,
回覆刪除多角度的思考令我們進步, 欣賞版主對不同意見的包容, 也令這blog生色不少, 精彩!
Just want to share that the Question and Answer section of the Q2 transcript contains many management decision-making thoughts. It tells alot.
回覆刪除HI,Raymond,
回覆刪除according your mentioned the Question and Answer section of the Q2 transcript, what is your opinion?
回 Anonymous said...
回覆刪除這股票我業績公佈之前放左..有錢賺..我見佢不斷俾人沽貨..當然之前有報告話佢2季度會蝕錢...但唔明公司冇盈利警告..
I have bought 2000 shares since May 2010.
回覆刪除With reference to the followings,
http://finance.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=12082344&extra=page%3D1&page=74
刚才睇了下市场先生的BLOG，和我印象不同，有时候也留意一下友POST，入面个个都话系债券减值拨备导致二季度缩水，如果真是的话有朝一日债券稍微回升就拨备冲回，盈利恢复。但是原来不是甘回事，原来是卖了天量的利差损保单，那么就真的手尾长了，平保的利差损保单在97年左右卖出去，遗毒一直维持到现在，每年都要拨备。
我没有945，也不清楚他的资产负债表，但是如果是利差损保单而非债券拨备导致二季度急跌，那么买了的或者准备买的，就真的只有自求多福了。
(By JNEYN 7/08/2010)
I think we better prepare another sharp fall(s) in this month.
What should we do then?
1. Catch the falling knife at about $80 or below with multiple batches if you still have a lot of cash in hand. Or
2. Keep the stuff and wait for 2 yrs to recover. Or
3. Cut loss if you do not trust this Co. anymore/ U have another better stock.
By Aston
Mathew,
回覆刪除I didn't carefully read the whole thing, but I glanced through them. I think Manulife will be flourishing when Fed rate/bond rate starts to rise; however, it won't be soon (i guess the fed rate will be the same for the rest of the year because unemployment rate is still high in the US).
For the hedging problem, MFC hedged 51% of the Seg. fund; it's the same as last quarter. However, management intends to hedge more when the equity market is going up. We could see that went from 35% by the end of 2009 to 51% in the 1st quarter, and it was flat in the second quarter as the equity market rapidly heading south in the 2nd quarter.
One thing I didn't see is about the Reserves for Seg. funds, and i doubt their intention to make the reserve fluctuate wildly from one quarter to another. It was from 1,125M in the 1st quarter to 4,694M in the second quarter; whereas it was from 5783M by the end of 2008 to 1671 in 2009. I believe the need for more reserve as equity market goes down. But I don't like their decision to recognize the earning from the reserve this soon; they should at least wait until the equity market to stable more and more but not this chaotic time. I understand investors like to see earning, but I think investors like to see more consistent earnings as well.
Overall, I'm holding MFC; it's still a good company and is selling at an attractive price now. The seg funds is not a lethal hit for MFC.
Raymond,
回覆刪除thankyou for your detail comment,
i'm thinking what the other reader Astor mentioned the long-term effect of the guarantee fund may harmful the consistent earning to the company, or the growth of new policy buyer will be the way for the company to hedge because they seems to allow lower return to new policy holder, after some times, the gearantee policy would be totaly been hedge,
also, even the big lose in 2rd quarter, the interest still remain the same at around HKD 1, it seem the company still not in probelm.
i'm not sure but try to think in difference dimension,
pls comment
If you take a look at the sensitivity provided by MFC, it says that if there is a negative parallel movement to the interest rate, MFC's earnings will decreased by another C$2.7 billion
回覆刪除Also, even for the hedged block of VA business, it is still losing C$ 0.276 billion.
有些网友听到利差损就panic, 会跟平保当年买的比较起来。 这些跟平保的有根本性的不同， 其实宏利的应该是暂时性利差损吧？！ 是因为利率到了历史性低端，如果利率正常，那些就可能已经唔系利差损保单了。 Donald Guloien 话： “We expect most of these charges to eventually reverse into earnings if interest
回覆刪除rates rise and returns on equity markets recover faster than long-term growth rates used in the valuation of our policy liabilities,
which is 2% a quarter plus dividends。”
资本市场上面的利率只是2%加股息。
利率上的应该也不会太高。
所以，有理由相信只要利率恢复正常，资本市场稳定，宏利依然会有earnings.
杜瓊斯指數在今年3月31日為10856, 在6月30日時是9774, 宏利在第二季業績中為此而撥備了多少? 上星期五杜指以10653收市, 差不多回升至3月31日水平, 宏利是否因此而可回撥約百億港元? 若是, 宏利在現價可掃貨. 若不, 情況如何?
回覆刪除大把野好過宏利金融喇, 我都唔明先生點解咁執著食隻股息稅又重, 前景又唔明朗, 又要集完一次資又再集既垃圾股. . .
回覆刪除I have challenged Mr Market's analysis on Manulife before but it hadn't been posted. I hope this message will not be deleted.
回覆刪除I really want to know Mr Market's logic of holding a stock which he already spots a problem. Confidence speaks from fact and analysis, logical prediction, rational forecast and good judgment. Otherwise it is just "faith" in spiritual term.
My view on Manulife is still positive because the long term bond is still optimistic. Recession possibly leads to deflation and in that case the insurance market will enjoy!
Many readers are waiting for Mr Market's "reasonable" elaboration on where his confidence comes from. It is affecting their decision on buy or sell, or even the painstaking action of cutting loss.
我無放，仲買多2手！
回覆刪除今日沽佐少少宏利，減低下風險。
回覆刪除其實如果先生既投資係長線，有三年以上，我覺得堅持持有宏利係可以。
唔同人對投資既風險、年期同埋對風險承受能力唔同，無必要將自己想法強加嚮人身上。
如果宏利三年後個價，俾到每年平均10%-15%回報，就值得投資啦。
我睇左先生個blog多年，我買過宏利大賺過但係依家冇貨。睇完呢堆comment我想point out幾樣野，但係同宏利冇關：
回覆刪除１）先生只係分享佢睇法同買賣，讀者唔該當係一種觀點，做多Ｄ功課同用個腦分析
２）先生只係一個人唔係神，睇法有對有錯好正常。我覺得佢呢幾年來，有好多分析都獨到同準確，某Ｄ讀者真係完美主義者
３）唔清楚件貨既唔該幾平都唔好買，唔好人話平你就買，買左乜都唔知而輸，難聽Ｄ講係抵死。
４）我覺得散戶應買多Ｄ業務比較透明同簡單既公司，如領匯或者某ｄ內需股，有數得計，你地揸都揸得安樂Ｄ，死左都甘心Ｄ
作為散戶, 我覺得宏利是業務比較透明和簡單的公司, 又有持久的往績支持, 屬於既安全又有穩定回報的公司, 但竟然都會不明不白地大幅虧蝕, 今日的股價較高峰時沒有了六成以上, 本人將近半的流動資金投放在這隻"穩陣股"上, 現在很傷, 很痛, 覺得死得很冤枉, 不知何年何月才可以返家鄉?
回覆刪除投資者要對自己做的決定負責, 所以先生的決定(持有)其實同其他人無關,不過睇到最新哦段comment-->
回覆刪除"筆者一定會以詳盡的分析配以理據去支持對宏利的信心, 希望大家耐心等待", 等如說先生仍未有足夠理據支持持有宏利,作決定後再諗支持論點的行為(類似Outcome Bias)乃投資大忌...
因為本人認為, 強而有力的投資理據或原因,一般只需幾句,何必長篇大論...
Do not blame anyone la!
回覆刪除I also lost 40,000 dollar on this stock.To be honest, nobody can tell the future, so be responsible to yourself.
Since Mr. Market didn't ask us to buy 945 but we follow his suggestion without any in depth consideration, we deserve to lost money. It's just like somebody on the street who ask you to buy some magical medicnes that can cure any cancers. Believe it or not? You need to judge it by yourself that's the spirit of Science.
Also. there is a golden rule in the stock market: "There is no free lunch!"
Why not blame yourselfas we trust someone whom we do not know very much!
老實講, 世上沒有穩陣股, HSBC 都可以跌至 $33. 買股自負, 冇得怨人.
回覆刪除geez... mr. market is being generous enough to share his thoughts of some companies at a different level from most of other so call "analyst"
回覆刪除yes, 945 is down so much with his "team member" hsbc. BUT SO WHAT?
investment is all by your own and if u do lose on buying 945 that's your own freaking problem!
go freaking away if u don't like mr. market's analysis.
do it on your own!!
其實市場先生佢從來都像電視財星一樣大力宣傳叫人跟他買股票... 他只是以blog分享他的看法... 為何有那麼多網友要批評他呢 ?
回覆刪除945股價雖跌, 但他持不持股總有他的理由吧... 真的無必要向他人交待... 也不應被人攻擊.
而我也長線看好945, 但短線來說我覺得有點[ 明天買比今天買會平, 後天買又比明天買為平..] 所以會遲點兒先考慮.
當前重點係應檢討:如何避免下次再犯同樣錯誤?
回覆刪除[更正]
回覆刪除其實市場先生佢從來都冇像電視財星一樣大力宣傳叫人跟他買股票... 他只是以blog分享他的看法... 為何有那麼多網友要批評他呢 ?
945股價雖跌, 但他持不持股總有他的理由吧... 真的無必要向他人交待... 也不應被人攻擊.
而我也長線看好945, 但短線來說我覺得有點[ 明天買比今天買會平, 後天買又比明天買為平..] 所以會遲點兒先考慮.
市場先生好叻呀！宏利今日又大插啦！
回覆刪除我認為市場先生只是在這平台分享的他的投資態度，並不是提供買賣股票的 tips !!
回覆刪除我絕對欣賞市場先生的投資方式，亦開始 buy n hold 優質及自己認為有信心的股票!
謝謝先生無私分享!!
哈~ 見呢度有觀望, 但睇淡945更多, 忍不住因為你地, 今早@105.5買幾手試下
回覆刪除god bless me
又要睇又要鬧，無聊！既然咁唔同意blog主嘅見解，不如喺自己個blog度寫番篇文章鬧鬼「宏利金融」，無謂喺度晒時間猛叫市場先生認錯！
回覆刪除上次出現眾人圍攻事件係喺匯豐跌到33蚊嗰陣，今次又會否歷史重演呢？
回覆刪除I have bought 2000 shares since May 2010.I think we better prepare another sharp fall(s) in this month.
回覆刪除Right now we do not have many choices. So what should we do then?
1. Catch the falling knife at about $80 or below with multiple batches if you still have a lot of cash in hand. Or
2. Keep the stuff and wait for 2 yrs to recover if you so not have much cash left. Or
3. Cut loss--> Better not now. It's too late.
By Aston
I have lots of 945 too, which occupies about two-fifths of my share profolio. I've read the column by Tony Measor in this week's Next Magazine in which he said he felt comfortable when he drove along the Eastern Corridor last week and saw the magnificient high-rise Manulife Finance Centre on the opposite waterfront. This makes me feel rather uncomfortable because I know that the building belongs to Henderson Land Development Co. (12) and not Manulife (945).
回覆刪除宏利美股MFC折合不足100港元, 做99.48~~~
回覆刪除你地班友係咪痴卵線的 ?
回覆刪除你地跟人買, 賺錢時有冇分d俾市場先生 ?
如果冇, 蝕到hi hi 時又憑咩叫人地認錯 ?
人地又唔係你既基金經理, 何錯可有 ?
人地幾錢買宏利, 你又知唔知 ?
你地班香港人成日都係咁, 輸打贏要...
唔該你地班人睇清楚人地寫曬本網誌係個人意見, 唔X係叫你地跟...
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本網頁屬個人網誌, 一切言論純粹是表達本人的個人意見或經驗分享, 無論在任何情況下, 不應被視為投資建議, 也不構成要約、招攬、邀請、誘使、建議或推薦，本人亦無法保證網誌內容的真確性和完整性。讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行求證和分析, 讀者一切的投資決定以及該投資決定引致的收益或損失，概與本人無涉。
你班宏利死士, 我地唔係人身攻擊市場先生, 真理愈辯愈明, 市場已經話比市場市生知宏利係廢股, 係你地唔接受現實者.
回覆刪除見人咁驚，買得仲安心，入市價 $105.7
回覆刪除本人是這blog的長期讀者, 感謝版主無私的付出和分享, 讓小弟能補充分析能力的不足和多角度思考, 感謝!
回覆刪除想替版主說句公道話,, 如版主所見他對金融股情有所鐘, 長期分析的約八至十隻, 海潚後大部份有很好的表現, 有關宏利和匯豐這兩股的事, 小弟不明某些讀者針對的人生攻擊, 說句公道話人家管理這個組合看的是其全面性和複概性, 匯豐的全球組合人所共知, 購入宏利除這公司內部素質外還可平衡環球風險, 需知十年河東, 十年河西, 宏利可平衡中國風險和補捉歐美復蘇, 為組合提供穩定回報, 此乃一個好的組合設計.
可知一隻股票上落受外在因素和內在因素影響, 外在因素變化萬千並非我們所能預測, 可做的是投資最好的公司替我們在順景時有最大的利潤而逆景時損失降到最少,
我們應感謝版主為我們找到最好的公司, 當順景時自然有最大的利潤,
某些讀者不明所以作人生攻擊祇制造問題, 全無解決方案,, 祇在喧嘩擾攘, 令人反感,,, 試想想交換角色, 閣下會有什麼感覺??
P.S上述係本人對版主的組合看法, 歡迎各位及版主對小弟睇法有所補充,, 集思廣益,, 謝謝!
回覆刪除To those who criticised on Mr Market regarding 945, why you do not mention other favorite stocks of Mr Market, like 2318, 2628, 3328 etc, return of these stocks are over 600% and even over 10 times if backed to 2007 since Mr Market recommended them? Every stock has down and up, like 13 recently every analyst says it is a good stock to invest, but it underperformed the market for a long while before.
回覆刪除My conclusion, don't just criticise on week performance of a single stock, please also appreciate Mr Market's capability to pick stock that can appreciate 10 times like 2318 and 2628, and more important, Mr Market is willing to share his analysis and investment experience to us.
愈多人心驚和不安，我就愈要加碼買多d~! 2009年3月9日，我就是這樣地瘋狂掃偵買匯豐~! :)
回覆刪除RE: Mathew
回覆刪除I bought 945 at 160 above,you told me to "宏利可平衡中國風險和補捉歐美復蘇, 為組合提供穩定回報" ?
I second bought 945 at 125 something, you tole me to" 宏利可平衡中國風險和補捉歐美復蘇, 為組合提供穩定回報" ?
As at today, 945 selling at 103 something, should I say " 宏利可平衡中國風險和補捉歐美復蘇, 為組合提供穩定回報" ?
Full of crabs in my stock portfolio, I don't fucking care about how flourish of the embedded value... The real fact is that 945 is now selling at 103 something and my average cost is far from this price!!!
I don't know why Mr. Mkt just release our comment but not release his comment of 945...
I am not angry with Mr. Mkt but i am fucking angry with the this falling knife~
Re: the above reader,
回覆刪除honestly, i got similar experience with you, my average cost around $145 since i bought after finacial crisis 2009, i lose over 300K in this stock, Full of crabs in my stock portfolio,(i joined 50% of margin)but at the same time i bought 3328 around $4 of equal amount of 945, i earned double from 3328.
i'm not emphasising how i smart or not, but i really think how the balance of my stock portfolio and how the advantage and disavantage of each stock what Mr market mentioned,
Try to imaging the reason why the falling reason of 945 this round??
"THE INTEREST RATE' it remain low since 2009 towards 945 lose on its business, meanwhile, most of H share benefit on this low interest rate environment included 'banking and perporty developer'
try to imaging what second round happen?? how the trend of interest rate? who can benefit or loss in next round??
if the interest rate rise obviously, will the China market collapse because the highly reliance of perporty sector?
will the insurance sector benefit for their high margin bases business type?
the above question is what we need to discuss for future preparation,,
complainant and fucking is no use for our stock performance, agree?
most of us here are similer situation to faced this 945 disaster,, i encourage all of us to provide how the positive comment in this blog to enhance the differ view of investment, and improve our quality for future investment.
honestly, i believed "NO PAIN NO GAIN" every change makes opporturnty and trap,, depend how we think and do.
BTW, i sold all of my 945 at 109.5 and lose totally 350k, (help!! this is around 40% of my total assets..i'm not rich as you imaging:-(
,,because i think there is NO catalyst to rise in short time since the announcement of FED on last Friday and my risk management
, but i still believe and confident on this stock, and MUST will buy back when another round of CHANGE arisen,,
(this is my personal opinion and story, pls comment)
an encouragement to you "BE POSSITIVE"
Hey buddies,
回覆刪除Just want to quote Mr. Market's investment philosophy
==================================
投資or投機: simple test
想知自己係投資or投機, 問下自己如果持股股價大跌驚唔驚,驚既就係投機, 唔驚就係投資.
張貼者： 市場先生 位於 5/28/2006 12:20:00 AM
could we make an arbitrage for MFC and 945.HK. MFC just traded at 95.9HKD....
回覆刪除Dear Mr Market,
回覆刪除one thing related of 945 to enquire,
i'm quite concern how the impact of low interest environment to 945,
one of my friend received a new insurance policy, which is a guarantee policy, instant $12,500 each year and guranteed receive back $500,000 after 20 year, also an insurance will cover if huge damage on body or die, according my calculation it is 6.2% compound interest return yearly,
i'm feel concern how can the company earn in this low interest environment and understand why its rapidly sales growth in the market,
will it be any meaning for this case? will it affect the potential eraning for the company?
thanks for share with
mathew
"There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
回覆刪除-Warren Buffett
// my records on 945 -- have fun!!
回覆刪除// avg=122.4 [-19.18%]: loss > earning!
130810 +500@102.0
100810 +200@112.0
210710 +300@112.6
050710 +300@116.1
070510 +400@137.8
050310 +400@149.8
// +5,830 [+11.56%]
160410 -400@151.5
111209 +200@132.8
201109 +200@138.8
// +6,000 [+11.33%]
110110 -400@156.0
190809 +200@155.1
140709 +200@133.8
// +14,230 [+80.35%]
160609 -200@162.5
270209 +200@90.1
// +11,630 [+89.7%]
210409 -200@123.0
040309 +200@64.85
mathew:你自己都睇到問題啦.而家正係反映呢個影響,低息令債券回報好低,但又要畀固定回報畀客仔.股市又唔算好.仲搞到不斷要同高息保單做撥備.而家經濟唔好,美國加息無望,原本個個都話今年加幾多幾多次,而家變成出年第二季,再遲下話唔定講2012.要捱幾耐?唔講都知.
回覆刪除平心而論..買股票輸錢..好平常..
回覆刪除但問題係第一季業績咁好..好多人會覺得前景好而追入...但第二季蝕大錢..又冇預警..
呢幾日成交巨大..可能係傳統基金出貨..完全無反彈..
would every brother comment about why the price of 945 in canada and US are remaining 7-8% lower than HK price?
回覆刪除any implication?
any extra cost should be attend if buy via E-trade?
pls comment
我想係度同大家講..
回覆刪除如果買保險股..
真係買 2378 好過 945...
2378 個個地區都有增長..相反 945 得亞洲有增長, 歐美地區, even Canada 都要有loss. 唔明白點解仲要keep 945.
Honestly, 3-5 年內上番 150$ 應該無問題...
re: mathew
回覆刪除My thoughts based on some facts.
1. main player is within due to increased volume, aiming at collecting stocks.
2. main player manipulate US market (smaller market) to drop deeper starting from the 5th day after 2Q 2010 result. This save manipulating cost and control both market.
3. making use of the closed price in US/Canada, HK small players willingly sell their stock without explicit price manipulation. Higher HK price reflect true buy/sell demand.
4. US/Canada seems reached bottom ($95) on Friday night. (V rebound)
5. predict: HK market will reach bottom on Monday. (Last fear)
Hi, mathew, maybe there are too many loyal followers who still think 945.hk is so cheap. I checked almost all the buy-side transactions for 945.hk from local securities firms. No I-bank or I-brokeage firms appears on the dealings. You are right, I suggest to buy MFC rather than 945.hk. The price is around 96. The highest price and the lowest price of MFC and 945.hk are almost the same(in hk dollars) in the historical records....it seems there is no grounds to buy 945.hk...
回覆刪除dear above two brother,
回覆刪除i think the market will still move up and down in short time, especilly the US market,,
i wont try to catch the BOTTOM of the 945, but i really try to catch when the fundamental CHANGE for it,
i still didnt find the CATALYST for it..
one suggestion..dont buy just because it CHEAP..buy it becasue it got a good FUTURE..
argee??
thanks for share.
Hi mathew. I totally agree with u. We buy shares as we want to earn the profit, not to buy at a cheaper price. If the fundamental change does not exist, there is no reason to hold it (according to the Q2 result). Just like 13.hk, if there is still no change on 3G environment, the price is still "under water". I hold 945.hk more than 100,000 shares at 118, but I still cut loss at 108.....
回覆刪除the worse situation comes, better days won't be far
回覆刪除今日又創新低.
回覆刪除專業投資者不斷沽貨,究竟反映什麼?
保險公司的盈利其實好受會計準則影響, 不同的會計準則得出的盈利也不同, 事實上如果採用美國準則, 宏利第2季沒有虧損反而有少少利潤. 第2季業績表面較差的其中一個原因, 是美國業務,但採用加拿大會計準則, 而加拿大的會計準則較美國保守. 預期宏利會在第3季調整精算假設的因素, 可能進一步影響業績, 但無論如何, 目前的估值被過份低估, 我不知道股價幾時會回升, 但可以肯定地說, 現價不合理地低於應有價值, 未來大幅回升至內含價值或以上的機會很大.
回覆刪除the worse situation comes, the most worst days not yet come...
回覆刪除i will buy it only when $80 something
One question,
回覆刪除According to the Q2 result the company been affect by the interest rate mostly because it holds large portion of bond,
I‘m thinking if interest rate rise shapely towards fallen of the bond price, shold this situation has netgotive effect to the company? Will this affect on the balance sheet? If so, when this situation is foreseeable what can the company can do?
Many thanks
argeed with what Mr Market said,
回覆刪除but i'm thinking when is the best time to involve,
I guess it may not be these few days becasue the huge turnover and seems unlited selling force(the 945 is not allow to short sell in HK)
回覆刪除seems the traditianl fund managing their portfolio,, i guess the stock price will become steady after week,,
i will try to involve around one month before the Q3 result announce,, what every one comment?
好快又會再集資.
回覆刪除why do you think it 好快又會再集資?
回覆刪除pls comment
美元一升股市散
回覆刪除滙豐控股（ 005）走勢弱，宏利金融（ 945）這昔日股王走勢更弱。單純以 6至 7月恒指回升，但其股價卻往下沉，便知道此股已遭洗倉。可以肯定地說，現水平仍未見底，更令人憂慮的，是環球的投資市場正隱藏着更大的殺機。宏利的收益視乎投資回報的表現，上半年需要作出大額撥備，應該是投資失誤，最擔心是因為一些債券及相關衍生產品的虧損。
由於債券市場泡沫已吹得太脹，是一個超巨型的炸彈，若有任何差池，後果實難以估計。中國近數月積極減持美債，美債的危機較歐債更令筆者擔心，股市後向難以樂觀。
要掌握港股短期走勢，一定要留意着環球各投資市場的舉動，特別是債市及滙市。美滙指數升至 83水平後正在調整，但相信調整好快完結，到時美元一升，股市會再冧。
沈振盈
作者為證監會持牌人士
Please comment this Mr. Market.
各位好，小弟新手一名，有２條問題想請教大家。
回覆刪除當美國國債孶息率下跌，為何持有美國債券的宏利需要預先撥備？對當初買入的債券會有影響的嗎？
大利市機所見,近日買方有不少散戶,賣方則以外資證券行為主,不斷貨入弱手.
回覆刪除今日再創一年新低,前排買入者又再受市場一記當頭棒喝.
回覆刪除看來double deep 不遠矣 ... 市場先生都病埋... 唉 , 先生保重呀
回覆刪除"I'm not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity." -- George Soros
回覆刪除Only 3 stocks meet all these criteria:
回覆刪除- market cap >US$10b
- P/E < 10
- div yield > 4%
- P/B < 1
MFC is one of them.
http://goo.gl/k2aO
長線投資的好處。在一些簡單的統計後，如果在01年最高位的時候購入宏利，到今天的最差表現，其實10年來表現還是9%的復利回報(已算上股息和25%的扣稅)，但不要忘記，現在幾乎最差的時候。如果實際上在人們瘋狂的那一年以最低位沽貨，獲利更是可觀的26%復利，當然，9%也足以跑贏了債券以及通貨膨脹，還有固定資產的升幅，長遠來講，長線的投資就是保證，一時之間的瘋狂下跌最後都會強力修復，并且在未來有好表現。
回覆刪除價值投資，應該清楚一個概念，價值投資不是從眾投資，恰恰是在眾人覺得不安的時候發現新的價值。細細分析，宏利已經上市超過10年，并且每年都派發股息，股息還隨著增長，而且經營作風穩健，但因為在金融海嘯的時候犯了跟匯豐同樣的錯誤，以非常高的價值買入了一間在海嘯中嚴重虧損的公司，導致未來的日子不停為其撥備。因為這一種信息，所以人們開始瘋狂對其股市進行拋售，并且對公司投以不信任的目光，所以PE其低，在5~8徘徊，還有PB，只有0.5左右，按照公佈的資產淨值，也只有114,同是如果按照市場先生的算法，淨值就高達175元，現在折扣明顯，對於一間好的公司，犯錯就是最好上車的時候，越跌越買是一個比較好的策略。
回覆刪除貪婪與恐懼。支持宏利最多的是東尼與市場先生，我們自己的恐懼以及損失的厭惡將不停遷怒於他們，內心的憤怒和不安將會急速轉化成對人身的謾罵與攻擊，這都源於我們的人性陰暗面，如果現在進行駁斥也只會引起更大的罵戰。或者我們沒有攻擊的理由，或者我們都是貪婪與恐懼過度了，或者我們不能面對現實，但是，投資是個人行為，至於正確或者錯誤，就正如幾年前葉局長對眾大學生所講：放長雙眼吧~
回覆刪除增長的陷阱。當宏利面對如此之多的問題時，我們不禁會想，不如轉投中國的股票吧，現在世界的焦點都在中國。是，沒有錯，中國的確取得了非同小可的成就和增長，也造就一大批的富翁，但請小心，過份強調增長可能掉入增長率陷阱，屆時被強調的股份將會有較高的溢價，這樣就損害了我們未來的收益，然後支付了過高的價錢。相反，宏利上金融公司背景，其行業就是今次海嘯的始作俑者，所以人們就像毒草一樣不敢碰，自然而然，價值就會被低估，正進入中了價值投資的圈。另外,為了降低風險，購買一定份額的國外股票而不是全部集中在中國也是一種分散風險的好辦法。
回覆刪除another NICE article anounced by a good writer,,http://tabodiary.blogspot.com/
回覆刪除add oil for every fellow invester..
be positive.
唔係01年買又如何呢?
回覆刪除大部分人都蝕緊.
價值投資唔係死揸唔放,公司價值唔係一成不變,盈利不斷增長,價值水漲船高,長期持有自然係賺到盡既好方法.但如果經營環境有變,公司策略出錯,盈利不前,價值亦相應下降.長遠來說,股價一定會反映價值既變化.如果睇得清價值,折扣明顯當然愈跌愈買,唔清唔楚就好易掉進陷阱.
持貨者應問一問自己:未出業績前,股價一路跌既時候,你諗緊乜野?你有否預料到Q2業績會有問題?定係只覺得第一季咁好,第二季應該唔會差喇o卦,公司冇問題,管理層好之類...點解人地會睇到有問題,你自己就睇唔到?如果自己睇唔到,又點肯定自己清楚宏利既價值?
又例如匯豐,出事之前究竟大家如何反應?為何大升市時佢都升唔起呢?值得深思.
MFC is now selling at HKD$86.63
回覆刪除THANKS Mr. Market to release this msg.
further drop of 6% in US tonight,,
回覆刪除would somebody HELP!!!
我真係對945 有點擔心, 最主要係:
回覆刪除1. 似乎公司有意將最壞的時期, 拖延至現在, 才披露!! 如果, 大市壞,像2008年10月, AIG down, 所有金融股都跌..OK..
但現在, 大部分都跌定了..剩餘945 大跌..真係令人費解..
不過, 我都會打算, 係80元左右, 加注2000..係感情多於理智 !!
現時14天rsi指數只得19左右,先生認為轉跌為升架日子接近嗎?現報86.5
回覆刪除*轉載*
回覆刪除近來小投資者的熱門問題，不少是買宏利(0945)中伏，究竟是戰是逃，拿不定主意。自己不是金融股專家，亦放棄了長揸金融股板塊，宏利固然不撈，其它金融股，包括歐美、內銀，多是避之則吉。
原因顯而易見：長線持股，當以價值投資先行。而價值投資的先決條件，是要估算公司的合理值，再待市價低於此水平時，方才買入。宏利、匯豐(0005)等金融股，手持的投資組合，基本上是個黑盒，外人根本無從知悉內裏乾坤。就算是一眾大行，由行業分析員專人全職跟進，得出的結論，往往都是相去甚遠。再以宏利為例，第二季出現虧損，印象中事前只有一位分析員提出預警。又如匯豐，出業績前眾多分析報告中，預測盈利的上限和下限，竟相差一倍。出盡全力，都得不到合理值。價值投資金融股，不外鏡花水月而已。
金融海嘯前的世界，以高槓桿運作，環境相就，就算公司有個黑盒組合，水漲船高的氛圍下，盲買也不太相干；但後海嘯的格局，以去槓桿化為主，管理層的能力，要比以往更強，才能創出佳績。今時今日，再去買這類身懷黑盒的金融股，是捨易取難之舉。
就宏利而言，管理層現時可做的，也是不多。公司之前賣出的保險組合，以債升股跌，最為不利。回顧近期市況，美債屢創新高、股市半生不死，管理層撤手不理不行，全盤對沖也不行。就如一葉輕舟，就算是航海能手，也是困難重重，逆水行舟。
當然，自己看不通，不出手，但不排除有高手看得通。或許一季之後，巴菲特公布趁低大手掃入宏利，也是未知。但切記分析的次數多，不等於對股份更熟悉 - 看好三年又三年，股價卻跌了三成又三成。力之所不逮，無以估計安全邊際，寧願避開。股票選擇多的是，對宏利這把飛墜之刃，自當謹守
“Don’t catch a falling knife.”的古訓。
但對散戶而言，如果唔博唔安落，與之共存亡, 保命之法有二：第一，限注買入，注碼控制風險，不要在一隻金融股賭身家；第二，請準備美股戶口，購入其ADR(美股編號：MFC)，通常會比香港有折讓，而且宏利ADR有期權市場，需要時可以買put對沖，又或股價長期牛皮，可以沽call減少損失。
黃國英
thanks Sobeit said
回覆刪除我見到唯一合理分析宏利既post..大戶都睇唔通前景.小戶可以做咩..趺市莫估底..這隻股票係一個教材
宏利變金融壞男人
回覆刪除大型股中，值得一講係隻宏利（945），大市氣氛弱，該股再跌4%。宏利在金融海嘯中最低去過近50元，之後大幅反彈到近200元，但今年開始反覆下跌，昨日跌到去86.9元。宏利自從宣佈業績由盈轉虧，股價即刻腳軟，由於撞正大市轉差，小股東初期都唔覺意，點知跌破百元關、跌連90元關都破埋，今個月該股已累積下跌30%，以一隻大型金融股講，咁樣跌法可以話殺股民於無形，十分恐怖。
宏利雖然主要係海外上市，但在香港掛牌後有段時間表現好好，所以頗受投資者歡迎，有人仲視之為股膽，但呢次金融海嘯一役，宏利受了好重內傷，最慘仲係負面消息一橛橛放出，然後一次次以票據等形式向市場伸手，如果股價反彈後不斷尋底，以為有買貴無買錯者固然錯失逃生機會，最慘仲係加注溝淡者，資金不斷被綁死。
有人話，男人唔壞、女人唔愛，壞男人多數知情識趣，討人喜歡，部份仲有老實外表，結果害到好多女人付上一生幸福，股票同男人一樣，若然癡心錯付，好易就斷送幸福，兩者仲有一樣相似，就係好男人會變壞，好公司都一樣會變差，宏利就係鮮活例子，佢變成日要伸手的壞男人，再三需索之下搞到基金紛紛沽貨。
金融海嘯前，保險業係搵銀金礦，但海嘯後金融市場炸彈處處，一有行差踏錯就會付出慘重代價，故此金融股唔係唔可以買，但買就要小心，正如女人嫁老公，就要成日check住佢，周不時留意佢有無古靈精怪，一有「依郁」就要家法侍候，如果唔係，到發覺個郎變心，就已經悔恨太遲！
小器，難成大器。死心眼，死硬。近來宏利(945)暴挫不歇，又見升又讚，跌又讚的粉絲，看錯Ｎ次後，本著「今年的盈利，即是今年的盈利；今年的撥備，終是將來的盈利 － 點都賺０架啦，乜駛驚！」的精神，舊票剛彈，又開遠期(空頭？)支票。幾年來，股價三百幾跌到九十幾，也從無懷疑自己看錯。這可能已經超越了死心眼，到達了終極形態的瞎心眼了。
回覆刪除恒基兆業地產集團租務部總經理薛伯榮(右)與宏利簽訂租務協議 ，宏利成為觀塘223最大租戶。
回覆刪除【本報訊】(記者 梁悅琴)恒基兆業地產及宏利人壽保險（國際）昨宣布，雙方已經簽訂一項重要的租務協議，由宏利承租觀塘223合共8層的24.7萬平方呎樓面。
樓面24.7萬呎 明年進駐
觀塘223樓高22層，總樓面面積達125萬平方呎，為恒基地產與新鴻基地產合作發展之東九龍最新地標寫字樓物業。此項協議是觀塘223自2008年落成以來最大宗的新租約。根據協議，宏利將租用觀塘223共8層樓面，並擁有物業命名權，宏利將於明年初遷入此商廈。
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2009/07/07/ME0907070006.htm
市場先生, 其實宏利係咪根本冇錢, 先至要租office? 如果係有料既, 點解唔做左業主佢?
塘223將是宏利在香港第四幢以其商號命名的物業，而以宏利命名的其餘三幢辦公大樓分別位於北角、銅鑼灣及佐敦。
北角---宏利保險大廈，是菱電以逾二十億元易手，買家為新加坡財團
銅鑼灣---2010年6月7日，泓富產業信託旗下公司Elite Properties （H.K.）Limited以二十二億五千萬元港元向菱電發展購入宏利保險中心
e隻股票根本就係黑洞黎...冇人知公司值幾錢, 連管理層都搞不清... 先生仍然月供宏利, 有什麼理據? 還是一時意氣? 先生, 不要亂花錢吧...市場上又不是沒有其他好股...
先生, 請你作出回應吧, 不要只上載我們的留言...
我覺得有料唔代表需要買入該物業,有料的話應該係識用低價買入,而唔係咩時勢都唔理就死去買,呢d係都係投資架一部分~
回覆刪除2 more shots on 945:
回覆刪除250810 +400@87.0
200810 +600@92.75
total: 3k@112.1 [-23.28%]
why? buy when oversold & sell when overbought, unless any better strategy.
so, should buy more when lower, unless winding up - but how likely?
Anonymous said...
回覆刪除我覺得有料唔代表需要買入該物業,有料的話應該係識用低價買入,而唔係咩時勢都唔理就死去買,呢d係都係投資架一部分~
10:32 AM
咁又係, 而家D租高到咁既時候宏利仲可以好proud咁話自己係大租客...果然識投資...
有個朋友做宏利, 話佐敦寫字樓d職員會搬去觀塘, d 租係平左好多架, 即係租觀塘係慳左錢架師兄
回覆刪除其實大家有無想過,有關宏利2Q"variable annuity business"既虧損,已經全數被反影,呢個係加拿大會計制度要求,3Q如要再有此虧損,需要利率再進一步下降 (但還有多少空間呢?)
回覆刪除其實我最想知道既, 係宏利係三地上市既股票係點樣流通,係唔係由指定既LIQUIDITY PROVIDER提供?
回覆刪除同埋如果在香港沽空左,係米可以係美國或加拿大買返, 不一定要係香港補倉?
美國有HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING呢的大殺傷武器比較有利INSTITUION MARK價..
喺觀塘嘅宏利金融中心好隔涉, 出咗地鐵, 要行約廿分鐘至到, 職員番工好麻煩, 樓下成個商場仲係空蕩蕩, 整日拍烏蠅, 附近嘅工廠大廈及大明渠令到空氣好污濁, 宏利搬去呢度做開荒牛, 租金估計至少慳一半, 但對公司形象就未必係好事.
回覆刪除美國國庫債券息率;
回覆刪除Date 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr 20 yr 30 yr
03/31/10 0.72% 1.23% 1.60% 1.99% 2.16%
06/30/10 0.25% 0.66% 1.15% 1.64% 1.71%
08/27/10 0.22% 0.58% 1.05% 1.60% 1.67%
重有幾多下調空間呢????
"宏利變金融壞男人
回覆刪除大型股中，值得一講係隻宏利（945）...."
陸羽仁呢幾年變得好似財經演員,特色係唔講分析,剩係靠嚇,只是引用價格變動為主要參考,加上男女關係既analogy,大編幅去sell fear.....
有無人提過加拿大會計制度係2q主要的因素,美國會計容許金融企業不需用mark to market入賬,如果宏利按美國同業會計報數,2q係會賺錢
hi anonymous , where you got those yield data ?
回覆刪除current UST10y is 2.5267% and UST30Y is 3.5801%
Tks for sharing .
作為一個職業炒友...
回覆刪除我會拎945(mfc)同2628(lfc)黎比較.
炒mfc跟美國個弱經濟黎炒
炒lfc跟大陸個強經濟黎炒
不管是中資還是外資股
能夠賺到錢的便是好股
COUPON RATE AND YIELD~!!!!
回覆刪除