同一盤生意, 採用加拿大公認會計準則, 宏利今年第2季錄得虧損23.78億加元, 整個上半年則錄得虧損12億加元, 但如果採用美國會計準則, 第2季仍錄得微利1.2億加元,整個上半年則錄得盈利11億加元, 其中一個主要的分別就在於是否要為長期保單負債按市值入帳. 此外, 宏利採用美國會計準則的股東權益較基於加拿大公認會計準則的股東權益多出70億加元.
美國業務卻要採用較嚴謹的加拿大公認會計準則對宏利來講是一個不幸的結合. 不過, 需要為長期負債按市值入帳的會計準則對股東和投資者是否真的是好事呢? 筆者絕對有保留. 第1季股市上升宏利賺11.4億加元, 第2季股市下跌宏利便蝕23.78億加元, 令到業績如此反覆, 只因為會計準則, 執筆之日, 美股標準普爾500指數已經回升到1,146點, 表示第2季大部分股市相關的虧損撥備得以回撥, 可能到年尾一切回復正常, 期間的波動便成為不必要的滋擾. 事實上, 第2季度宏利的經調整經營盈利仍然有6.58億加元, 只稍為低於管理層的目標下限.
筆者希望大家明白, 加拿大公認會計準則是非常保守的. 雖然宏利已經為保單負債作最佳假設並建立儲蓄金, 但加拿大公認會計準則仍然不止於此, 它假設保險公司的最佳假設最終仍然會出現錯誤, 因此要求保險公再額外預留儲蓄金, 稱為Provision for adverse deviations(PFADS). 截至第2季未, 宏利的PFADS儲蓄金高達300億加元, 相當於每股16.99加元或128.5港元.
不幸地, 未來宏利仍然要面對一些不明朗而且會影響業績的因素. 預期第3季宏利會為長期護理業務的精算方法及精算假設作出修訂, 相關撥備支出可能高達7億加元. 此外, 宏利計劃於第3季下調精算假設的再投資回報率, 長期美國國債利率會由4.2%下調到4%, 而長期加拿大國債利率則會由4%下調到3.8%, 估計相關撥備支出達到3億加元. 另外, 因應變額年金保證波動性增加所作之假設, 宏利可能因此需要撥備支出不少於3億加元. 另外一個不明朗因素是宏利須於2011年1月1日開始採用國際財務匯報準則, 以取代加拿大公認會計準則. 一旦加拿大公認會計準則和國際財務匯報準則計算的資產, 負債與股本帳面值出現差異, 則會反映在期初保留盈利內. 筆者較關注的是商譽減值測試可能導致重大的減值支出, 金額可能超過10億加元.
筆者是在宏利股價跌至86港元的時候, 開始寫這個超過7000字的宏利系列的文章, 並且也趁機增持了800股. 至今過了一個月, 宏利股價只是回升13%, 的確有點失望, 不過筆者仍然堅信現價的宏利非常抵買. 不過, 坦白講, 筆者不知道佔宏利保證價值70%的美國股市和利率什麼時候可以全面復甦, 也不知道宏利的股價什麼時候可以重振雄風. 大家看完整個宏利系列的文章, 應該對宏利目前面對的困難有個更清晰的概念, 前路的確仍然艱辛, 不過筆者相信未來宏利股價一定可以再創歷史新高位. (完)
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gd post and really thanks for your hard study. As one of agent from manulife, your content make me understand better. I wish both of us or other value investor can reach financial freedom assp.
回覆刪除路漫漫其修遠兮, 吾將酌量增持而求早日翻本.
回覆刪除Mr. Market,
回覆刪除I will buy it around 90-95 and I think it is good if the US market turns good.
Calvin
Mr. Market
回覆刪除Olease write something about AIA (IPO). Thanks
採用國際財務匯報準則, 以取代加拿大公認會計準則也許是好事吧? 起碼不需要每季再把保單負債mark to market
回覆刪除"筆者相信未來宏利股價一定可以再創歷史新高位"
回覆刪除真的佩服你的信心 !
明知公司變質仍死抱不放,與當年死抱電盈同出一轍.
回覆刪除樓上的無名氏大哥唔係無知就應該係白痴......
回覆刪除唔知點解好多傻人鐘意用電盈做比喻呢隻,比喻o個隻,見跌喊跌,見升喊升
究竟知唔知電盈當年咩事?
宏利又發生緊咩事架?
雖然我唔同意樓上講法,但死抱宏利好大機會錯過呢個上升浪~畢竟恢復盈利同股價築底起碼都要一年半載,還是不要太重注
投資還是分散較好,不要太重注於一個行業
當年盈科(電盈前身)鯨吞香港電訊是一場官商勾結欺詐股民的大騙局, 與八十年代初的佳寧案可堪比擬, 不過後者東窗事發, 前者逍遙法外, 而股民損失慘重則並無二致.
回覆刪除ＨＩ～本人持有３００股宏利。平均價９９元。
回覆刪除我相信宏利可以升上１６０之上。但天天看著它小升小趺，感覺很不是味兒。怕又像從前一樣一會兒又賣了它。想問先生是抱住咩心態去長渣？？
i am working in manulife as an agent, and brought in 86.25 as well, it is my first stock and i am a believer of value investing by Benjamin Graham.
回覆刪除i discovered your blog after buy in manulife's stock by random doing research about value investment in Hong Kong. it is very surprising for me to see people like you in hk. now i believe the unclear for 945 is an advantage for anyone who see this opportunity, you do not need a lot of "faith" to know the current price is heavily under-value, anytime below $100 is a very good price and it gives chance for people to buy in more (like me because i don't have a lot of cash).
it is not a hard road, in fact the most confusing right now give advantage to those who can see things clearly.
after all as Warren said: "價格及價值的關係有些時候是困惑混亂, 但終久他們必會和好如初". focus on the value, not the price.
add oil.
given so much concerns and uncertainties you have mentioned in the posts, i really find it hard to understand why one should still add to a losing position. The risk/reward is just unfavorable. If the US stock market turns around, there're many other stocks which could easily outperform MFC.
回覆刪除if you look at short term you are really true but it makes you a Speculator, any insurance company is not situable for speculation.
回覆刪除but if you look at from an investment angle, the confusing time and uncertainties for you (represent the majority) is a chance for value investors like us. there is no risk if you see the value.
losing on book balance is normal for investors, but not acceptable for speculators.
you see a good speculator buy in buy out doing lots of action so they might win in short run. but a good investor sit around and wait for the crops to grow will win in long run.
that's something a speculator can never understand.
interesting...
回覆刪除the question is how sure you are that there is value and how you determine the value. Not just blind faith and reiterating buffett's rhetorics.
if MFC's fate is linked to the performance of US stocks, what's the difference of buying US stocks vs. MFC.
you are sure when you are sure, i work there, i study their annual report, i know insurance business.
回覆刪除to determine the inner value of a company is an art also a sciense, blind faith apply for those who have none for both.
MFC's fate is not linked to the preformance of the US stocks i am afraid. as an investor you don't look at the market, you look at a company. good company can win whether the market is good or bad. while an average company win when everyone wins, lose when everyone lose.
you can take Warren's another advice: you don't invest on business you can't understand.
so insurance is not for you, but it is definitely for me. let's wait and see :)