1. 有關匯豐融資貸款賬項(Loan book)同市值比較(Mark to Market)有負數340億美元(Fair Value deficit), 大摩已澄清並非指匯豐因此需要用資金去填補呢個洞, 而只是提醒投資者在比較匯豐的資本狀況時要留意呢方面.
2. 有關匯豐需要增加資本268億美元, 大摩的計算是這樣的:
- 歷史上, 匯豐會維持120基點(basis points), 大約120億美元的超額資本(surplus capital). 由於之前已經動用110億美元去支持美國和英國分公司, 超額資本因而跌至25基點. 相信管理層會維持控股公司的超額資本在120基點的水平, 因此需要補充資本110億美元.
- 預期美國業務未來2年將錄得虧損, 因此需要控股公司注資50億美元.
- 匯豐於08年上半年共有可供出售資產(AFS)728.23億美元, 其中202.93億為政府資助或擔保(已減值1%), 其餘包括69.35億次按相關, 103.16億.ALT-A, 56.25億 他按揭相關(other RMBS), 103.69億商用物業按揭, 56.13億槓桿融資(Leverage Loan), 62.62億學生貸款, 74.1億其他ABS/CDO. 大摩認為現時可供出售資產的虧損儲備150億美元並不足夠, 需要加多50億美元.
- 同香港以及亞洲其他同業比較, 匯豐香港業務的核心一級資本比率只有6.8%, 相比恆生和中銀香港都超過10%, 如果 匯豐香港業務的核心一級資本比率提升至9%, 則需要資本58億美元.
不過, 大摩承認, 匯豐香港業務需要注資58億美元的理據比較弱, 因為目前監管當局對匯豐香港業務的核心一級資本比率水平是滿意的.
大摩認為, 即使匯豐減少派股息68億 (註: 07年匯豐共派股息101億美元, 其中26%選擇以股代息), 仍然需要額外資本大約200億美元.
3. 有關現時匯豐計算核心資本比率時, 納入150億美元的可供出售資產的未實現虧損儲備(Unrealized losses in the AFS reserve), 以及50億美元的保險資本, 大摩澄清並非質疑計算方法, 只是提醒投資者, 當比較匯豐和其他歐洲或亞洲銀行同業的資本比率時, 需注意此等不可相比較的因素. 例如, 匯豐130基點的可供出售資產的未實現虧損儲備相對歐洲銀行同業是非常高的, 另外, 歐洲銀行同業也沒有受惠於保險資本.
大摩認為增加200億美元的資本, 削減50%派息, 不計算150億美元的AFS 未實現虧損儲備 和 50億美元的保險資本, 匯豐將可以有一個干淨的核心一級資本比率7.2% (a clean Core Equity tier 1 of 7.2%).
台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
兜吧!兜吧!睇3月2日又如何自圓其說?
回覆刪除先生有冇大摩份報告原版?
回覆刪除Thanks for the info, Mr Market! I have been wondering how they calculate the additional cap requirements.
回覆刪除My comments on their arguments are:
1) from HFC/ HSBC USA financial statements (10k), I can only see that the parent has injected 3.5b to HFC & 1.46b to HSBC USA up to 3Q08; from the news, ~1.1b has been injected into the UK subsid during 4Q08. So a total of ~6b in stead of the quoted 11b. Don't know where he gets the 12b surplus cap from. I suspect it can become out of date quickly since this figure will change rapidly along the year (acqusitions, disposals, dividends etc). I think the most reliable indicator is still the group's overall cap ratios.
2) I don't think HSBC will inject cap in anticipation of potential future losses, at least not two years in advance because this will be a waste
3) in its 3Q interim management statement, HSBC already provided a further 4.8b during 3Q08 in its reserve, so this is already done
4) I don't see why it suddenly need to increase its cap ratio for HK; it is purely wishful thinking
After all, the most important measure is still its up-to-date cap ratio. The company disclosed that as of end 3Q08, its Tier 1 cap ratio has actually slightly increased to 8.9% despite all the cap injections. Its core Tier 1 is also very high at about 7.8%. I believe FSA requires a min Tier 1 of 6%. So it still has excess cap of >30b. The group is still making profits and cap generative. So I really don't see any needs for cap raising unless they are doing major acquisitions (such as buying AIA).
I have been looking at HSBC's number recently. Some of my own conclusions are:
I strongly believe that it will maintain its dividend level this year and also likely for next year. Looking at its dividend history (I only have data for the last 30 years), it has never reduced its dividend payment. Out of the last 30 years, its profit retreated three times (90, 98, 01). But it still maintained its dividend payment level. I believe management will try very hard to maintain this tradition because it is extremely valuable to its shareholders.
My own calculation is that its FY08 EPS will retreat between 20-30%. So its payout ratio will rise up to 80% if it maintains it dividend. This is not unprecedented and I believe they can afford it at least for 1-2 years.
市場先生，您好！
回覆刪除新年進歩！
最近，我開始寫博客主要是關於兒童發展，特別是資優，正常或發育遲緩兒童的思維、語言及社交情緖發展。亦有提及成人、長者和腦創傷的特別的個案。有時間，歡迎來參觀。
Bravo 上
臨牀腦神經心理醫學 http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/bravo_cnp
以思馭動 http://clinical-neuropsychology.blogspot.com/
早前有建議匯控可考慮維持派息，但強制以股代息，我就贊同呢個idea, 唔知先生點睇呢 ?
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