到了2008年的最後一天, 是時候為自己作一個簡單的回顧.
首先是投資方面. 永久組合在年底的市值同最高峰比較下跌大約50%.
(註: 永久組合並未計入第3季度以股代息的351股#5匯豐, 以及100股尚未轉名的#945宏利.)
至於月供股票組合, 也錄得帳面虧損大約34%.
今次經歷了金融海嘯的洗禮之後, 使筆者對Buy and hold 的投資策略有新的體會, 遲些時候會寫一篇有關Buy and hold 的反思, 總結經驗和教訓.
工作方面, 個人就不過不失, 從事的行業就風雲變色, 一步一驚心, 的確是百年難得一遇.
今年筆者最大的收穫, 就是終於成家立室了, 開展人生重要的一頁.
在08年的除夕夜, 以樂觀的心態去迎接新一年的到來, 祝大家萬事如意, 新年進步.
台灣yahoo: http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
新浪Sina: http://graham_choi2003.mysinablog.com/
香港yahoo: http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/mr-market/
大口仔都好想知你的體會....
回覆刪除期待你的分享
回覆刪除Happy life & good health in 2009
Hi Mr. Market
回覆刪除Happy New Year!
Greatly expect to read your article of rethink about "Buy & Hold" Investment Strategy.
Regards
Stephen
先生,
回覆刪除happy new year in 2009!
cheers
小興-kk
Dear Mr market,
回覆刪除Looking back 2008, i also lost 50% of my money , with buy and hold strategy, i eager to see what your thought.
Happy new year 2009
Starwil
Happy new year!!
回覆刪除Dear Mr. Market
回覆刪除There is nothing wrong with buy and hold strategy. I think the qustion are when to buy and hold how long?
AIG is an good example failure of buy and hold although nothing wrong in their account statement. No. 5! oh forget no. 5 it really hurt me when Tony said it worth minimum 200. Now only 75. My average cost is 125. Lost 45%. It still has chance down to 65.
I've dropped the buy and hold strategy. Even though if it works, it may outlive my life span. Unlike days when Buffet was young, the world has become more complicated with derivative intruments, too volatile with uncertainly over long term.
回覆刪除It's time to be flexible and stay alert to latest market development.
Incidents in 2008 clearly show that you can't trust management. CEOs come and go.
Small investors are the least informed in many cases and by then, it is too late to get out.
the problem with buy and hold stratigy is there's a missing word "sell" which is the key to complete the "mission"...
回覆刪除remember you "buy" a stock at an undervalued price and hold till it get to the "right" price, sell it when it's overvalued, you just don't hold it forever.
you also have to consider the overall market conditions, for financial sectors, economic cycle is the key factor, i just don't understand why you ignored it.
for the comong years, i don't believe financials will bring you good returns as they used to be, the whole sector has changed in terms of fundalmentles and behaviors
Mr Market,
回覆刪除I always admire your consistency. I think there is really nothing wrong with B&H, under the conditions that
1. Personal cash flow is strong
2. Dividends are consistent and strong the stocks under B&H, and
3. The companies held are not in the habit of asking for more and more capital on a regular basis.
Nouriel Roubini says the worse is still ahead of us. My personal gut feeling is that this is not over yet.......will 700B in the TARP program solve everything? I tend to disagree with your earlier comment that the worst is almost over for banks.
So, financial stocks are still heading for a cliff in the coming year, I believe.
Happy New Year.
The market has underpriced risk for too long......
回覆刪除Once-in-a-hundred-year event? Financial disasters happen more often than that......
Mr. Market,
回覆刪除Hope a prosperous 2009 comes.
Calvin
實在太多人看淡金融股啦!
回覆刪除勝利會否就是被看淡的一方?
回應大口仔, skm , Stephen, Starwil, 無名士: 最近忙於佈置新居, 遲d才有時間認真寫. 大致來講, Buy and hold 仍然是有效的投資方法, 我會繼續運用, 不過需要一些微調, 相信效益會更好.
回覆刪除回應小興-kk, Jay , Calvin: 多謝, 也祝你新年進步
回應Ma : 股市一向如此, 從過份瘋狂到過份恐懼, 然後又重複.
回應無名士: 仍然認為優質金融股是好的投資
呢次金融海嘯的確感觸良多, 尤其見到一班雷曼苦主,被裁的員工, 公司倒閉的老板...
回覆刪除希望大家身體健康, healthy & wealthy!
Hi Mr. Market:
回覆刪除It is my first time to read your article about Value Investment.
Can you please tell me what kind of occupation in your career?
Thanks and regards,
Stock9928