tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post5347503072075078055..comments2024-03-28T20:38:41.305+08:00Comments on 市場先生自語: 現在是對宏利貪婪的時候(四)市場先生http://www.blogger.com/profile/16233063454441287643noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-16536590313370179752010-10-12T17:54:47.761+08:002010-10-12T17:54:47.761+08:00i want to refer to someone who said: Buffet's ...i want to refer to someone who said: Buffet's first selection criteria is to look at the management team.<br /><br />i am sorry to say this is so not true, in value investing the first criteria is the right business.<br /><br />he once said: a good business is able to perform even it is run by a monkey. insurance is such business i am afraid.mechcalvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05761899397775465382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-16435993755874880122010-10-04T22:22:29.467+08:002010-10-04T22:22:29.467+08:002. 宏利的投資組合主要為可供出售金融資產(Available for Sale), 公允價值變動而...2. 宏利的投資組合主要為可供出售金融資產(Available for Sale), 公允價值變動而產生的盈虧, 正常情況只會在資產負債表中確認, 為何會影響當期損益表?<br /><br />IMO, we should also consider unrealised G/L from the AFS assets.Actuarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-61946550298732226662010-10-04T22:20:34.655+08:002010-10-04T22:20:34.655+08:00In other words, the liabilities will increase from...In other words, the liabilities will increase from $0 to $20 ($100 guarantee - $80 segregated fund value). <br /><br />The liabilities can also be considered as reserve. Any change in reserve need to reflect in the income statement. <br /><br />The word "liabilities" is not a good word. "Change in reserve" (expense item in P/L) is a better one.<br /><br />Why is USGAAP not good? If one says we should look at insurer's performance at a long term basis, I don't understand why "smoothing" is not a good idea. Remember smoothing the loss can also smooth the earnings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-66287398462320291752010-09-29T16:42:38.651+08:002010-09-29T16:42:38.651+08:001. 獨立基金的資產屬於保單持有人, 保險公司只是負責管理, 為何獨立基金的資產按市價入帳會影響宏利...1. 獨立基金的資產屬於保單持有人, 保險公司只是負責管理, 為何獨立基金的資產按市價入帳會影響宏利本身的損益表?<br /><br />2. 宏利的投資組合主要為可供出售金融資產(Available for Sale), 公允價值變動而產生的盈虧, 正常情況只會在資產負債表中確認, 為何會影響當期損益表?<br /><br />#1 & #2<br />Assuming MFC's guarantee to the policyholders is $100, the segregated fund drops from $100 to $80. From MFC's point of view, the difference between the guarantee and the segregated fund is MFC's liabilities. In other words, the liabilities will increase from $0 to $20 ($100 guarantee - $80 segregated fund value). <br />The liabilities can also be considered as reserve. Any change in reserve need to reflect in the income statement. <br /><br />In a word, when the assets value of segregated fund drops, the difference between guaranteed value and segregated fund value, or reserves, increases. The increase in reserve are to be reflected in the income statement and thus earning drops.<br /><br /><br />4. 美國會計準則同樣需要對資產按市價入帳,為何同一盤生意,按加拿大會計準則會得出巨額虧損的結果,而採用美國會計準則卻錄得盈利?<br /><br />USGAAP basically is not a good indicator to measure the earnings of insurance companies. There are many accounting items to smooth the earnings or to spread the loss over a long period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-63623158511301941342010-09-26T15:49:06.008+08:002010-09-26T15:49:06.008+08:00近日察覺股.樓.金.銀齊齊船高水漲,我相信係時候増加現金數量近日察覺股.樓.金.銀齊齊船高水漲,我相信係時候増加現金數量selbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-61632265834568003412010-09-25T23:17:07.876+08:002010-09-25T23:17:07.876+08:00多謝大家的意見, 基於data security, 我唔可以俾街外人救DATA, 不過, 會試下俾朋...多謝大家的意見, 基於data security, 我唔可以俾街外人救DATA, 不過, 會試下俾朋友救.市場先生https://www.blogger.com/profile/16233063454441287643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-27588604896510060682010-09-25T04:44:12.035+08:002010-09-25T04:44:12.035+08:00MFC.TO price up in Canada
CAD13.15 0.39 (3.06%)MFC.TO price up in Canada<br />CAD13.15 0.39 (3.06%)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-24603360101378976992010-09-24T22:30:41.888+08:002010-09-24T22:30:41.888+08:00冇陰公, 今日隻宏利又跌四皮嘢, 唉!
貪婪? 唔敢, 我只係希望佢快啲升番上二百蚊,
唔知年尾...冇陰公, 今日隻宏利又跌四皮嘢, 唉! <br />貪婪? 唔敢, 我只係希望佢快啲升番上二百蚊, <br />唔知年尾有冇機會呢?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-56190060700378006542010-09-24T21:14:33.284+08:002010-09-24T21:14:33.284+08:00fed開始擔心通縮,對美債價格有利,但對宏利肯定係惡夢.fed開始擔心通縮,對美債價格有利,但對宏利肯定係惡夢.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-88847911264924630842010-09-24T21:08:43.146+08:002010-09-24T21:08:43.146+08:00If you really follow Buffet's principle as sta...If you really follow Buffet's principle as stated in your banner (投資致勝之道: 在別人恐懼的時候你要變得貪心; 在別人貪心的時候你要變得恐懼 - 巴菲特), you should drop 945 without hesitation nor any further analysis.<br /><br />Buffet's first selection criteria is to look at the management team, business's prospect is the second, and "undervalued" stock is the third. Obviously, 945 has violated the first and top selection criteria. All the so-called data analysis shall come to nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-88173402670351097642010-09-24T16:50:08.555+08:002010-09-24T16:50:08.555+08:00你好,data recovery service香港已經有好多間公司可以做到,我之前幫朋友攪過,$1...你好,data recovery service香港已經有好多間公司可以做到,我之前幫朋友攪過,$1500左右,可能現在會更平,如果你的DATA是十分重要,這個價錢非常值,希望可以幫到你,只要在yahoo打data recovery就會找到。竹筒noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-59822967409782860042010-09-23T21:20:41.221+08:002010-09-23T21:20:41.221+08:00Ar A: In fact, I am the previous one who would lik...Ar A: In fact, I am the previous one who would like you to compare 945 with other Canadian insurance company. To be honest, I think the management of 945 have performed something wrong and bad to the company and hide the fact. Therefore, other insurance company result is not good. But not as 945. Or maybe, the result of 945 should be worser in the last year and they hide it. It is very mess for the company internal control per my auditor's friend. Be careful la.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-82908672387794310682010-09-23T10:21:37.133+08:002010-09-23T10:21:37.133+08:00先生匯豐有投資美股啦..
有冇睇岩隻美股?? 巴郡??
定apple
http://pghk.blo...先生匯豐有投資美股啦..<br />有冇睇岩隻美股?? 巴郡??<br />定apple<br /><a rel="nofollow">http://pghk.blogspot.com/2010/09/blog-post_7957.html</a>PGHKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09243152030370130699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-89236948702645486562010-09-22T23:57:34.898+08:002010-09-22T23:57:34.898+08:00As other had said. Send the HD to SSP, or Wan Chai...As other had said. Send the HD to SSP, or Wan Chai etc. They only charge an assessment fee ($100-300) first. Try more than one shops, price quite variable. You can get back the HD and refuse further recovery if the price is too high. My 500G HD cost me $1200 a few months ago. But i don't know whether my HD got similar problem as yours. Another issue is security problem, whether they could get a copy of your HD and explore your data/privacy i don't know.<br />Good luck !<br />Cheers,<br />BillAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-31725793595663517032010-09-22T23:33:42.152+08:002010-09-22T23:33:42.152+08:00Mr. Market
本人一直有留意閣下文章,非常欣賞您對投資的堅持和對個別股票分析的深度。
關...Mr. Market<br /><br />本人一直有留意閣下文章,非常欣賞您對投資的堅持和對個別股票分析的深度。<br /><br />關於宏利有一點回應,加拿大會計準則要求 liabilities mark to market,再呈現於p/l,導致出現數十億non-cash loss,再看管理層分析,最大driving factor是美國國債息率於2010 Q2插水,及美股插水,衝擊offset其他business增長。再看Q3十年期美債QTD再跌大概0.5%,所以可以預期Q3 EPS亦好不了多少。<br /><br />本人認為,買宏利基本上中線可以等同為看好美股與看淡美債,而後者影響較大,而本人亦相信美債必定是大泡沫。宏利的問題不能純以micro角度分析,由macro角度及公司asset/liabilities exposure的角度可能更合適。<br /><br />SShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11508135640831270171noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-79435894793367263712010-09-22T22:58:21.189+08:002010-09-22T22:58:21.189+08:00my company's technical support brought one dea...my company's technical support brought one dead hard disk to shenzhen... only spent a few hundred RMB and got everything back easy.<br /><br />if you need help,let me know~~CooLesThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17144808726476059434noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-64283538657784673792010-09-22T21:58:21.440+08:002010-09-22T21:58:21.440+08:00support you!support you!400blowshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16128987160160600569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-54445886006966202202010-09-22T19:11:28.267+08:002010-09-22T19:11:28.267+08:00希望先生可以一路分享你地投資經驗,我最記得幾年前先生在平保十二左右同國壽五六蚊既時候大量買入至今,回...希望先生可以一路分享你地投資經驗,我最記得幾年前先生在平保十二左右同國壽五六蚊既時候大量買入至今,回報超可觀,真是另人佩服。可惜有很多人單單睇你匯控宏利呢兩項投資,再將你既錯誤無限放大。無法子,好多人是這樣,不懂欣賞別人,只睇壞既一面,其實這樣做人,對自己是全無好處的Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-12981265860297319082010-09-22T16:49:12.926+08:002010-09-22T16:49:12.926+08:00先生不要減產! 我每日都上來睇的,謝謝你一直以來的分享, 我於年中亦開始月供宏利了.先生不要減產! 我每日都上來睇的,謝謝你一直以來的分享, 我於年中亦開始月供宏利了.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-16485217990999957042010-09-22T15:33:07.149+08:002010-09-22T15:33:07.149+08:00不要氣餒,送自己一個中秋禮物:portable harddisk.不要氣餒,送自己一個中秋禮物:portable harddisk.skmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02666746977022466057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-66735955359135436302010-09-22T15:16:21.009+08:002010-09-22T15:16:21.009+08:00謝謝你的見解,希望你可以修補到問題謝謝你的見解,希望你可以修補到問題Selbynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-51248757108554817422010-09-22T14:43:55.637+08:002010-09-22T14:43:55.637+08:00um...價值投資我認同,但時間也是很重要的資本......um...價值投資我認同,但時間也是很重要的資本......DWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14095440520460420766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-85789733193182859252010-09-22T10:43:16.752+08:002010-09-22T10:43:16.752+08:00you might go to Sham Shui Po New golden Centre to ...you might go to Sham Shui Po New golden Centre to reach the data recovery shops. they can get the data back though it cost, as you said, ,might be one to three thousands. but i think it might be worth doing.Carlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-60283536498524972522010-09-22T09:52:28.719+08:002010-09-22T09:52:28.719+08:00知識才是價值啊,就算再貴都值得把它找回知識才是價值啊,就算再貴都值得把它找回Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28838839.post-83184049570437660772010-09-22T06:21:25.749+08:002010-09-22T06:21:25.749+08:00大大增加筆者未來寫文章的難道以及降低寫文章的意欲.----看見了心情低落...希望先生可以繼續將你的...大大增加筆者未來寫文章的難道以及降低寫文章的意欲.----看見了心情低落...希望先生可以繼續將你的見解公諸同好!謝!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com